Good morning,

Just a quick update for Tuesday morning weatherwise, I’ll have more detail later in the day.

Look for mostly sunny skies today and moderating temps. We’ll easily make it into the mid and upper 50’s today in the valley with slightly cooler temps above in the mountains. Wouldn’t be surprised if we hit 60 in some places. But for everyone it will feel much nicer since the sun will be out and the winds light around 5-8 MPH. Tonight, for the first time, we won’t be under a freeze warning. Overnight valley lows will be just above freezing in the 33-35 dgeree range valley and right around 32 on the mountains. Rain might slip in by daylight but look more likely later in the day Wed. If some of the initial light precip makes it in early a little frozen precip could be seen before changing to rain as the temps warm. It won’t be very warm Wed with highs around the upper 40’s to near 50 in the valley and not out of the 40’s mountains.

Speaking of no more freeze warnings, I saw Mr. Paul Saunders this morning on Channel 13 out of Lynchburg talking about the impact of freezing temps on the apple and peach crops. If anyone should know it’s him! He’s been doing that for decades. He said the real extent of the damage won’t be know for about two weeks. Let’s keep out fingers crossed! Paul is a great guy and a fine person!

Once this system moves out by late Thursday we have temps in the 60’s on Friday just before a more powerful system makes it’s way here by the weekend. Saturday looks to be the best day for perhaps some thunder. I am still pondering the chances for severe weather this weekend. A bit less likely than thinking yesterday but still not totally ruled out. Remember, long range forecasting is very unreliable, I don’t care what the experts tell you. Real accuracy goes way, way down after 12-24 hours out and a 7 day forecast, you might as well roll the dice. I expect lots of disagreement with this, but it’s true. The longer out you go in an extended forecast the more unreliable it becomes. General trends are possible, but accuracy it limited.

Oky enough on that for now, I’ll have an afternoon update with more.

Have a great Tuesday and enjoy the sun!
Tommy

Updated: Monday evening 10:18 PM EDT 4.9.2007

Have a good evening,
Tommy

Good morning!

Hope everyone had a nice Easter weekend. Though this was a cold one for sure! Temps over the weekend generally hovered in the 40’s with overnight lows dipping into the 20’s and even teens upon Devil’s Knob at our NCL-TWNF Weathernet Station. It’s still a cold 29 up there as I write this post around 9:15 AM.

Cold temps hang on for a few more days before we finally see moderating temps by week’s end. We’ll make it into the lower 50’s valley today and near 42 or so on the mountains. Tonight we again go in the deep freeze with upper 20’s in the valley to around 25 on the mountains. Cold yes, but it is moderating slightly as the artic air is slowly losing it’s grip here.

The real question mark in the forecast is around Tuesday night into Wednesday. Tuesday night a system approaches bringing moisture in. Temps will be right around the freezing mark in the valley overnight and at freezing on the mountains. This could allow for snow to develop in the overnight hours and early morning Wednesday before temps warm up enough to change over to just plain rain. Wintergreen, Montebello, Afton Mountain, etc at or near 2000 feet have better chances of seeing snow than the valley, but it’s not out of the question for all of us to once again see a smattering of snow. The NWS forecasters and the computer models they use to forecast are having a hard time determining what will happen over the next 48 hours. Rain looks likely, snow is still a question depending on the temps. I tend to think we will see some snow again, though nothing to write home over at this point.

By the end of the week we will start seeing temps in the lower 60’s and then upper 60’s by Sunday / Monday. Finally temps more in line with this time of year. There may even be a chance for thunderstorms (some severe) by next weekend. A little too early to tell just yet, but I do see some trends to support that.

I’ll have more on the snow this evening as I see how the system develops over the next 12 to 18 hours.

Have a great Monday and remember you can always find out the real LIVE weather copnditions at any of our NCL-Weathernet Stations by using the drop down menu in the upper left hand part of the page here at NelsonCountyLife.com Tell your friends!

Tommy

Good Saturday morning!

Well as we discussed last evening the snow fell overnight. We ended up with about an inch of snow here at the office in Greenfield.

Not overly surprised. The upper level low moved by last night and gave us anywhere from an inch of snow here in the valley to a little more at Wintergreen. I heard from Josh Palumbo at Wintergreen Nature Foundation this morning. He said they got about 2 inches of snow there. We know they got as low as 22 degrees up there last night, but we had a computer malfunction overnight there and don’t have the complete data set. NCL-TWNF
I’d say 22 is pretty close though. You can check out other state and area snowfall totals at this NWS site.

Here at NCL-Nelson County Life Magazine we bottomed out at 29 degrees. The freezing temps have everyone concerned right now. Yvette and I ate breakfast at the Rockfish Valley Community Center’s monthly pancake breakfast this morning and that was the topic of conversation. If you have never eaten there, you should! Great food! It’s always the first Saturday of the month. Stan Driver of Riverside Nursery at Spruce Creek said he’s got some vegitation that’s just started coming out and the tender portions could get bitten by the coming freeze tonight.

Bev and Keith, owners of Basic Necessities, (just back from New Orleans & heading out again Monday!) echoed the same. By the way, if you haven’t visited their blog from New Orleans you should. These guys are something else. In case you don’t know, both of them spend most of their time in New Orleans helping Katrina storm victims rebuild. They have rented a place down there and come back here briefly to regroup, then head back. You can see lots of their pictures and read about what they are doing here

Ray over at Delfosse Vineyard also said one of the plots there reached 26 degress the other night, and I am sure they’ll get pretty low tonight. Not a good scenario when you depend on them for the wine! But again this stuff can’t last for very long, we’re getting way late in the season and warm temps will return again soon. Just look at the flowers, they know!

Would like to give a shout out to Linda and Greg Heuer. They had some nice things to say about my forecast overnight:

1. Greg & Linda Heuer Says:

WOW! Local weather guys hits it right on the button! Looking out on the deck this morning at 5 AM, we see the one inch of snow (as predicted) on top of the table in a neat little donut. Nice work!
On April 7th, 2007 at 5:54 am e

Thanks guys for reading and the nice remarks! That’s why I am forecasting here now, we get much better results with the local data from the NCL Weathernet Stations. This is going to be fun and we appreciate all of the input from everyone!

Ok, on to tonight and the rest of the weekend forecast. Look for mostly sunny skies to work in as the afternoon wears on, but don’t look for much heat. It “ain’t” happening! We’ve already reached our highs for today in the lower 40’s. Temps in the valley will hover in the upper 30’s for the remainder of the day before bottoming out tonight around 20 degrees here in the valley with temps in the mid to upper teens on the mountains. It will be a breezy day today with winds hitting to near 30 on the mountains and near 20 MPH down below.

By Sunday we “start” to moderate a bit. Back around 50 with plenty of sun on Easter Sunday, around 40 mountains. Sunday night lows hit 20 mountains about 28 or so valley. On Monday we make the mid 50’s, same on Tuesday. By Tuesday night a chance of rain is back in the forecast. I don’t see any 60’s out there until late in the week next week. Moderating air looks to be on it’s way around that time. Beyond that I think we begin to warm up nicely.

Thanks again to everyone who’s been visiting out new site. Keep coming back and tell everyone you know about it!

Have a warm Saturday and wonderful Easter. More later in the weekend.
Tommy

Good Friday evening,

Snow is still in the forecast tonight for Central Virginia and the Wintergreen area. Again, this won’t be a big snowmaker, but I do think some areas will see a dusting to around an inch of snow. Today was cool, but not terribly cold. Though everything feels cold after the 80+ degrees earlier this week. Today at Nelson County Life Magazine here in Greenfield we had a high of 53 degrees just before 3Pm after an overnight low of right at freezing of 32 degrees around 3 AM Friday. Up on the mountain at our NCL-Wintergreen Nature Foundation weather station at Devil’s Knob they struggled today to reach a high of 43 degrees after an overnight low of 18 this morning. Brhhh. I ate lunch up there today at The Edge and it was a cold day with some wind. To the east at Delfosse Vineyard & Winery they had a high today of 51 with an overnight low of 31.

Overnight look for clouds to increase with showers developing. In the evening NWS forecast discussion mentions of snow are scattered throughout:

Thermal profiles appear favorable for snow…with rain possible at
onset across lower southern Maryland. Despite the cool temperatures
aloft…wont be surprised to see a few sleet reports at onset across
the region as melting may occur in the boundary layer…and
evaporational effects lead to refreezing. If this occurs…it should
be brief (left out of forecast as impact will be negligible)

The air is very very dry right now, so it may take some time before the actual rain / snow ever makes it to the ground. (It takes a while for the rain to invade a dry air mass before it can hit the ground) As of this post the humidity levels are running around 28% – a long way from 100%!

On Saturday clouds linger with scattered snow showeres in the AM – with sun returning by the afternoon. Tonight look for a low of about 30 dgerees but we’ll see some gusty winds from time to time up to 30 MPH especially after midnight when the snow has better chances of arriving. Saturday’s highs are in the low to mid 40’s – with Saturday night lows in the lows 20’s and Sunday highs around 53. We start a slow warmup on Monday as we head into a new week.

If any of you reading this get some neat snow pics, send them to us at: info@nelsoncountylife.com and we’ll put them up here.

And a final footnote. Some folks have mentioned noticing NCL-Wintergreen Winery / Beech Grove & NCL Mini-Tara Vineyard / Arrington have been on and offline over the past week. Yep, you are correct! The guys at those locations are dealing with dialup connections from their stations to report the data to Weather Underground internet and us. It’s being worked on and those connections should be more reliable in the coming days.

Everyone have a great Friday night and warm weekend! The Easter Bunny is going to be cold come Sunday morning!

Tommy

Good evening,

Not much has changed from my morning post regarding the temperatures, but I did read a mention in the evening forecast discussion from NWS regarding the potential for a period of maybe accumulating snow Friday night east of the Blue Ridge. They don’t say it that way, believe me they want a back door if it doesn’t happen, but I agree with time on this. There is a chance the temps will be about right Friday night for some snow to accumulate and cause some road problems. NWS says it this way:

Friday night…

A strong cut off upper level low will continue to stretch from the
Great Lakes into southeastern Canada. A disturbance rotating around
this low will pass through Friday night. As this system moves
through…a coastal low is expected to develop before it races off
to the northeast Saturday morning. The uncertainty lies in how fast
the coastal system can develop before it moves out to sea. Our
current thinking is that rain/snow develops Friday night with the
best chance for steadier precipitation across lower southern
Maryland during the overnight. Problems from wintry precipitation
east of the Blue Ridge mountains will be most likely late Friday
night into early Saturday morning when enough cold air can work
its way into the system for a possible period of snow before the
precipitation ends.

It’s April in the Blue Ridge!

Have a good evening and more on Friday,

Tommy

Good morning everyone,

Like I have been saying for the past several days, winter is about to make a return in a big way. Yesterday was the last of the really warm days until we make it well into next week. Look for cold temperatures tonight, and very cold temperatures as we make it into the weekend. Here’s a little bit of the Winter Weather Advisory / Freeze Warnings the National Weather Service has issued:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
945 AM EDT THU APR 5 2007

945 AM EDT THU APR 5 2007

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
FRIDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EDT FRIDAY. A FREEZE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS
FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR HAS SETTLED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
20S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DO DAMAGE TO
FRUIT TREES WHICH HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO BLOOM...AND ANY TENDER
VEGETATION. BRING ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS INDOORS IF POSSIBLE.

Tonight we’ll be down around 25 degrees in the valley, though I think we may be below that as the dew-points now are in the upper teens. (Tip – generally speaking the overnight low temperature can be determined by looking at dew-points, the amount of available moisture in the air. The overnight temps can never go below what the dew-point is as you have 100% saturation.) So don’t be surprised if we see some low 20’s in places. On Friday we’ll have temps in the mid-50’s by afternoon with a chance of a passing shower and increasing clouds. Friday night, I thought I was done saying this! – Yes a decent shot at some snow showers! Oh brother. Lows will be in the lower 20’s here in the valley. Weekend highs only make it into the mid 40’s Sat and around 50 on Sun. Upon the mountains you are looking at some very, very cold temps. Here’s a look at the forecast for altitudes above 200 feet, brhhhh:

FORECAST FOR SHENANDOAH NATIONAL PARK ABOVE 2000 FEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
954 AM EDT THU APR 5 2007

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
FRIDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY...BLUSTERY AND COLD. HIGHS AROUND 40.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD. LOWS AROUND 18.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 40.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY AND COLD WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 16.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. 

So if you love cold weather, you’ll love the next few days. Unfortunately for those of us that don’t we’ll be waiting for the warmer days to return about the middle of next week!

More updates later – have a great Thursday,

Tommy