Updated for mention of thundershower Saturday afternoon: 4.28.07 12:00 noon EDT

Good Saturday afternoon,

Just a quick update. There are a few dynamics coming together that may – and I say may – provide a shot at some showers maybe even an isolated thundershower this afternoon. This is on the backside of the system that moved through yesterday. A couple of upper air systems may provide light showers this afternoon. Regardless this won’t be enough to spoil much of anything, but might want to take a rain jacket or unbrella just in case for later today. It will get cool as clouds move in. The local satellite view shows clouds swirling in counterclockwise around the upper air disturbances. I do think best chances of rain will stay west of the BRP, but can’t rule out stray showers even in the Nelson, Wintergreen area. It will continue to be breezy from time to time with winds kicking up to 25 MPH with higher gusts. With Mr. Sun hiding on occasion, it will feel cool with the winds. For full forecast details info see previous post here.

The Blacksburg NWS office in Blacksburg mentions the possibility of thunder:

Near term /through tonight/…
Have adjusted probability of precipitation up slightly for this afternoon and added
isolated thunderstorms for all areas. Measurable rainfall looks like
almost a sure bet on the western slopes today. Also…model
soundings show thin cape developing across the County Warning Area as upper wave
moves overhead.

If you wade through the weather jargon – it essentially means what I said above. A slight chance of showers, but not a downpour day.

I wouldn’t cancel any plans on this one.

Have a great Saturday!
-T-

Updated: 4.25.07 5:36 EDT – for severe storms mention & Thursday
Good Wednesday evening,

Have a great Wed evening and Thursday,
-T-
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Previous post
Good Wednesday morning again from West TN.

I continue to keep an eye on several things affecting our weather here back in TN and there in Nelson over the coming 48 hours.

There are chances for rain over the next 2-3 days before we dry out. We won’t have contiunual rain, but decent shots for showers and then thunderstorms toward the end of the week.

Wednesday look for skies to be come mostly cloudy as the day progresses. Local satellite via Wunderground show partly cloudy skies across the area, but more clouds are streaming in from the west and SW. Temps today will be near 80 early then cooling as showers move in. The forscast models seem to miss the temps as we are getting more sunshine than expected. Some of the NCL Weathernet stations like NCL-Wintergreen Winery are already reporting upper 70’s. On the mountains look for temps in the low 70’s for highs.

Tonight about 40% of the area will see some scattered thunderstorms. Lows in the 50’s generally.

Thursday is pretty much a carbon copy of Wednesday with temps in the 70’s. By Thursday night chances for storms become better organized after midnight continuing into Friday.

The NWS office in Sterling is monitoring the situation for possibly severe storms in that period. Here’s part of what they say:

This
system has a history of producing weather over the central
US…would not be surprised to see a few strong/severe storms in the
middle Atlantic. Will go ahead and add mention to the severe weather potential statement with this
package issuance…

We certainly have the chances for severe weather here in TN where I currently am. You can take a look west to TX and see what’s been brewing. Just not confident yet that the system will hold together as well by the time it gets to Central Virginia.

The storm prediction center in OK shows us near the slight risk area for severe weather over the coming 48 hours.
Click this picture to enlarge:

The area inside the green is the slight risk area. On Friday it shifts slightly east, but we are still in it. The best chances for us seeing severe storms is after midnight Thursday and during the day Friday. By Friday evening we begin to see showers diminish with temps falling overnight into the mid 50’s.

Over the weekend look for mostly sunny skies on Saturday with temps in the low 70’s. ON Sunday partly cloudy with temps wamring to the mid and upper 70’s. Should be a great weekend to go out and hear Jan Smith at Wintergreen Winery! She and Jeff will be there playing. Yvette and I will be there for sure, never miss hearing them when we can. They are a great team!

Look like a nice weekend shaping up, so enjoy!

I will monitor the developing weather and update as needed.

Have a great Wednesday!
-T-

Good Monday to everyone,

As I prepare this morning forecast, I am in West Tennessee about 700 miles away from you there in Nelson. Already miss those mountains! It’s pretty flat here, pretty but in a different way. This is where I grew up almost on the Mississippi River.

Look for another super wonderful day weatherwise! We’ll see partly cloudy skies in Nelson County. Temps will warm nicely well into the lower & mid 80 valley, mountains around 80 degrees. So a warm day all around. Monday night we become mostly cloudy with temps falling into the upper 50’s valley and around 55 on the mountains.

By Tuesday we see chances of rain work into the forecast. Highs still mild generally in the upper 70’s.

We get a brief break in the rain Wednesday but by Thursday the better chances for rain surface continuing till around Friday then we clear Friday night. Temps cool to lower 70’s for daytime highs over the weekend, but we should see plenty of sunshine.

Ironically the system you will see there in Nelson is already starting to affect where I am now in W-TN. We may actually see severe weather here by Wednesday.

I’ll update again as things progress on the forecast.

Have a great Monday!
-T-

Good Sunday,

What a great weekend thus far and Sunday won’t be a disappointment either! Today look for sunny skies and temps ranging from low to mid 80’s valley and lower to mid 70’s mountains. As of 10:40 EDT the NCL- Wintergreen Nature Foundation Wunderground station showed a mild temperature of 74 degrees. This is about as close to perfect as you can get!

Tonight temperatures drop to upper 40’s to near 50 valley and around 46 to 47 degrees mountains. We will start having southerly winds later today so temps will stay up a bit warmer tonight than previous nights.

On Monday the nice weather continues with mostly sunny skies and temps low 80’s valley – mid 70’s mountains. Southerly winds do increase in the afternoon to around 15-20 MPH. Monday night looks to be mild again with lows valley 55 – mountains low to mid 50’s depending on cloud cover. Mid 50’s if clouds bank up against the mountains overnight. The winds stay up in the 10-20 MPH range overnight Monday.

By Tuesday skies become partly sunny as some clouds begin working in – in advance of the next system. Still mild temps in the upper 70’s & upper 60’s mountains. By Wednesday afternoon chances of rain move into the area with temps again in the upper 70’s valley – and around 70 mountains.

The chances for thundershowers continues through Friday.. By Saturday, right now it looks like the rain will be on it’s way out of here. Great timing!

Enjoy your Sunday, it’s gonna be a beautiful one!
-T-