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Weathercast by Tommy Stafford, Nelson County Life Magazine

AUDIO VERSION OF FORECAST (some PC users may need to click play button twice)

Photography by Elaine Weems
For www.NelsonCountyLife.com : © 2007
Hyacinth, Eichhornia crassipes, near Back Bay
Sandbridge, Virginia

This morning beautiful weather photo comes to us from Elaine and Henri Weems of Rodes Farm here in Nelson. They were recently on a trip and captured this beautiful picture! They say:

“Elaine took this photo of a water hyacinth, Eichhornia crassipes, near Back Bay U.S. Fish & Wildlife Area at Sandbridge, Virginia. Water hyacinths are very pretty but extremely invasive water plants common to North America, Asia, Australia and Africa.”

We always enjoy getting pics from Elaine and Henri and know they are loyal audiocast listners each morning!

Tuesday was another nice day to be outdoors working. Pleasant, sometimes warm temperatures made it feel more Summer like rather than Fall. According to NWS discussions, the first half of October has been the warmest on record thus far, ahead of 1990 readings by about 2 degrees. Though a critical situation regarding rain, it’s important to keep these kinds of weather events in perspective and know the cycle can and will change over time. We’ll see rain, maybe as soon as Thursday, but certainly as we work into the winter months. Though right about now would be just fine!

Changes do appear to be shaping up for some rain by the end of the week. Earlier I was skeptical. So far most forecasters and models agree that rain and thunderstorms are in the forecast. This is not a huge rain event, but we could see 1 and 2 inch amounts in some areas of Central Virginia. Thursday begins the process perhaps even with a clap of thunder from time to time late in the day, by Friday more organized severe weather is even a possibility as we will be in a warm and humid environment with an approaching cold front. The Storm Prediction Center has us depicted for severe weather in their longest range forecast as of late Tuesday night as seen below (D4) Has now listed us in their DAy 3 (Friday) outlook for possible severe weather. Audio will be updated later:

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

VALID 191200Z – 201200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
ERN CONUS…

…SYNOPSIS…
LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EWD AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES — AND EVENTUALLY CLEARS — THE ATLANTIC COAST.

…ERN UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE W SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS EWD TO
THE ATLANTIC COAST…

ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY LOCALLY-SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS/ATLANTIC COAST STATES. MOIST PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LAYER BUT LIMITED HEATING DUE TO ONGOING PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER
SUGGESTS MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE RISK AREA. THIS SHOULD
SUSTAIN A LARGE PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS — COMPRISED OF
SMALLER LINES/CLUSTERS — FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD PERSISTING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH…SHEAR WILL ONCE AGAIN DRIVE
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS. ALONG WITH STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL…A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO EXPECTED — PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE BACKED/SELY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW IS ANTICIPATED INVOF
A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION. STORMS/SEVERE THREAT
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS…AS STORMS
NEAR/MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

By Wednesday afternoon / evening we’ll have a better idea of severe weather possibilities. Right now the weather is predicted at the very end of the forecast period by the Storm Prediction Center, so it could significantly change over the next 24 hours.

And for those of you keeping score at home, The numbers as of 11:59 PM EDT last night

*NCL-Nelson County Life Magazine : Greenfield / Afton, VA
Tuesday High: 83.5°
0.00″ of rain

*NCL-Wintergreen Nature Foundation : Devil’s Knob, VA
Tuesday High: 79.5°
0.00″ of rain

*NCL-Wintergreen Winery @ the foot of Wintergreen Mountain in Beech Grove, VA
Tuesday High: 79.0°
0.00″ of rain

*NEW*NCL-Hatcreek Farm on Horseshoe Mountain : Tuesday High: 81.9°
0.00″ of rain

*NCL-Delfosse Winery & Vineyard : Faber, VA
Tuesday High: 82.6°
0.00″ of rain

*NCL-Tiger Fuel – Lovingston, VA
Tuesday High: 81.5°
0.00″ of rain

*NCL-Mini Tara Vineyards : Arrington, VA
Tuesday High: 77.7°
0.00″ of rain

Today’s Forecast Map

On the National Forecast Map, high pressure begins to weaken and move east toward the Atlantic. As it moves east we will get a more southerly flow by week’s end with moisture heading our way. The air will become more balmy and unstable increasing our chances for showers and thunderstorms by Thursday & Friday. Much cooler temperatures move in by next week.

Local forecast
*Today Partly sunny early with increasing clouds as the day wears on. Mild again.
*High temps in Nellysford, Ivy, & Colleen around 80°
*On the mountains above 2000 feet along the BRP, Montebello, Wintergreen, Devil’s Knob, and Love, Partly sunny early, increasing clouds late.
Highs top out around 74°
Winds: S 5-10 MPH

*Tonight Mostly cloudy with increasing humidity into Thursday morning.
*Lows valley near: 56°
*On the mountains: 54°
*Winds: S 5-10 MPH

Tomorrow Mostly cloudy with showers by afternoon across 40% of the area.
*Highs valley near 75°
*On the mountains – near 64°
Winds: S 12-14 MPH
*Tomorrow night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms – Lows near 60° valley – 53° mountains.
Winds: S 12-14 MPH

The remainder of the week Thunderstorms, some possibly severe on Friday. Daytime highs generally near 80° valley – on the mountains look for daytime highs in the upper 60’s nearing 70° – Overnight lows – near 60 valley & mid 50’s mountains.

The weekend looks dry after lingering showers Saturday morning. Daytime highs mid 70’s valley – around 70° mountains. By early next week daytime highs cool to the lower 60’s by Tuesday.

Whenever or wherever severe weather or news breaks out, we’ll have the latest watches, warnings, and coverage affecting Nelson County, Wintergreen, and nearby counties.

Have a great Wednesday!

Know your Nelson.COM
-T-