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Mr T’s SUNday Forecast – Finally SUN!

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Tommy Stafford
Nelson County Life Magazine

Good Sunday,

Before I get off into the weather, be sure to look below the forecast stuff here for lots of stories and pictures from this weekend’s events around the area. Simply scroll below the forecast after you’re finished reading.

Finally after days and days of clouds we will finally see the sun today. Though it will be windy and cool, the sun will make it feel much better. After tonight’s chance of light frost (see below) it gets even better for the coming week with temps returning to seasonal norms.
Local satellite already shows clearing skies on the way.

Today’s Forecast Map
Sunday Map

Two things to deal with today and tonight before we have clear sailing. The wind and the possibility of light frost tonight in some areas. This won’t be anything like we saw a month ago where temps hit the 20’s for five nights in a row, but with clear sikes and cool Canadian air filtering down tonight it could happen in some areas. There is already a frost advisory out on the other side of the mountain in the Shenandoah Valley.

The winds will be gusty today, touching 30+ MPH at times due to the high pressure to our north and areas of low pressure to the east. And old saying, the higher the high and the lower the low the more the wind will blow. That’s the case here as the two try to play their game of equalization! It will be most noticeable east of the Blue Ridge as mentioned in the NWS discussion out of Blacksburg this morning.

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/…
noticable airmass change coming this morning. Cold front now
moving through northern Virginia with a sharp dewpoint gradient followed by
stiff northeast winds. Rainfall has all but diminished ahead of
the front. Expecting plenty of sun today pushing temperatures into the
60s in most places despite the strong cold air……..Northeast gradient winds
will be gusting to near 30 miles per hour at times…especially east of the
Blue Ridge where the pressure gradient between the entering surface
high and the developing low off the coast will be strongest.

Then of course we have to deal with the possibility of frost mentioned above. I do think the better chances are just to our west and northwest, but I wouldn’t leave any tender plants out tonight if you can bring them in. If you can’t, then cover them if possible. This should really only affect the most tender plants and established ones shoudn’t have a big problem. Just don’t leave the new tomato plants to go in the garden sitting out on the picnic table tonght!

So today look for sunny skies to work their way into the entire area. We’ll see clouds early but clearing is on the way. Highs in the valley will be around 63 to 64 this afternoon with those breezy NNE winds around 10-20 with gusts as high as 30 MPH. On the mountains at Wintergreen, along the Blue Ridge Parkway, Montebello, Afton Mountain and other areas above 2000 feet look for sunny skies later today and highs topping into the low and mid 50’s. You will see even higher wind gusts at places like Devil’s Knob from time to time.

Tonight look for clear skies and temps in the mid and upper 30’s valley – low to mid 30’s mountains. The winds will stay up early but begin diminishing after 9 PM towards midnight. That’s when we’ll have the best chance to see any frost if the winds completely go light. Remember at Wintergreen and other mountain locations you could see better chances for frost.

Monday and beyond things improve dramatically. Monday highs will be in the upper 60’s to right around 70 degrees with NE winds around 12-14 MPH valley – around 60 degrees mountains. Monday night lows around 43 valley and 38 or so mountains.

The rest of the week looks mostly sunny to partly cloudy with highs topping out in the 80’s by Thursday. Chances for rain move back in by Saturday.

Get the sunglasses out today and enjoy that bizzare yellow circle in the sky.

Have a good one,
-T-

RVCC Pancake Breakfast & Farmer’s Market opens in Nellysford, VA

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Photos and story by Tommy Stafford – Nelson County Life Magazine

Like I discussed earlier today, the weather here in Central Virginia is still pretty gloomy, but the rain held off for everyone to get out this morning. We first went to the Rockfish Valley Community Center where we loaded up on breakfast and visited with everyone. It’s always the first Saturday of the month, and it is yummy! Be sure to make it.

Here’s a few shots from Saturday morning’s RVCC breakfast.
Young-Breakfast

Serving Line

Dining

We saw way too many folks to name individually, but we did sit at the table with Bev and Keith from Basic Necessities. They are back in Nelson for the summer after spending months in New Orleans helping folks there rebuild. If you haven’t seen their blog about their time there, check it out here. The work they have been doing there is tremendous!

After loading up on a great breakfast it was off to the opening day of the Farmer’s Market in Nellysford next to Wintergreen Real Estate. Thanks again to those guys at the real estate company. Thye stepped in and bought a brand new tent after the storm last summer destroyed the old one. They had already bought that old one too!

Here the crowd pours in for the opening of the Farmer’s Market.
Tent Crowd

Below Sarah Leake (Yep the one you know from Basic Necessities) chats it up with Amy Childs, of the Farmer’s Market, while a customer fills up on coffee and the goodies Sarah had there. She’ll still be behind the counter at Basic when you go by, but she’s started baking her own goodies that are yummy to eat too! A little birdie tells us to look for something new she’ll have at next Saturday’s market…mmmmm, guess we’ll have to go by and see what she’s gonna have!
Sarah Amy

You name it, you can find it here at the Farmer’s Market. Here folks from the Double H Organic Farm wait on a customer stopping by.

Double H Farm

Ok, we just couldn’t resist this one, even if it was posed. Too cute!
Kids Pic

This is what’s so great about the Farmer’s Market. There is a little bit of everything here, and it’s the real thing, not something off of a shelf in a store that was trucked in from who knows where. I sincerely doubt this bread was trucked in on a semi!
Bread

And pets have to check out the market too! Here David Witmer of Wintergreen Performing Arts shows off his new dog of 6 months. I just wish he’d gotten a dog with a white coat!
Witmer-Dog

And finally, even though she’s already on the cover of this month’s NCL, we noticed Elizabeth VanDeventer, of Davis Creek Farm, was doing a brisk business at the market. If you haven’t read the story about her family operation, check it out on page 12 of the May 2007 issue of Nelson County Life Magazine.
Davis Creek

Make sure to get by the market next Saturday if you didn’t make it. With the growing season about to really kick off, there will be tons of great tasting stuff there. And it’s local, local, local, local, local! – Did I say local?

Shadow Missing Cat – Gray smoky color – Reward – Nellysford

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In May we started a new online database where people can put up notices about a missing pet. There is no charge to do this. However, the notice must be sent to us in a ready format for posting to the web. No faxes or text copy will be accepted. You must send in an electronic format ready for web publication such as a pdf file or jpeg. If you have any questions please contact us via the link at the top of this page on the right. We know how much our pets mean to us so hopefully this will help get the missing ones back home safely.

Shadow

TASR Horse event @ Oak Ridge Estate in May – Arrington, VA

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By Tommy Stafford – NCL Magazine

Near the end of May look for part of Oak Ridge Estate to be transformed back to the days of the old west when TASR holds its trial ride and competition. “TASR stands for Thoroughbred and Anglo Sport Horse Registry, but there will be all breeds competing in this events,” says Judith Shrum. Judith was at Oak Ridge in April marking trials and checking things out to be sure it’s ready for the May 26th and 27th event. “Our goal is to bring horse people that compete in a variety of different sports together so they can see what each other does. The North American Trail Ride Conference’s goal is to educate new riders and to educate older riders, experienced riders, and to help people prepare and train a competition worthy horse that can be on trail for a long time,” Judith continues. She and her horse, Shadow’s Shadowfacts, will make the trip from their home in Pilot, VA to compete in the event. “Shadows is the lineage, Go Boy’s Shadow. And Shadowfacts of course because I was reading the Lord of the Rings when he was born and I wanted a horse like Gandalf rode,” she laughs.
All photos by Tommy Stafford – Nelson County Life Magazine
Judith & Horse
Above Judith Shrum with Shadow’s Shadowfacts, takes a break from checking out the trail in April to make sure it is ready for the May event.

“It’s fun. And we’re always looking for a new place to have a competitive trail ride and this place is gorgeous. Three weeks ago we were here doing the same thing we’re doing today except trying to find out where we were,” says Dr. Dow Strader from Bristol, Tennessee. He’s a retired thoracic surgeon. In May he and his wife, Johnnie, will be two of at least 60 making the trip to Oak Ridge for the ride.

Dow and Amigo
Above, Dr. Dow Strader from Bristol, TN gets ready for a practice ride with Amigo.

Riders arrive on Friday May 25th where they can check in and chow down! The ride offers one day and two day rides in the open, novice and CP. There will be a poker run, a California Trail Ride, a Dressage Show & Hunter Place. There’s also a 6K run starting at 5Pm Saturday and a 25 mile mountain bike race on Sunday at 2PM.

Juduth says this is not a typial race. “This is different from endurance riding because in endurance riding it’s a race and you win by being in the top ten who finish with a sound horse. But in our competition we’re trying to ride a prescribed course in a specified period of time. So we have a 30 min window in which we must finish and we are given obstacles along the way. Our horses are judged and our riders are judged by two judges.”

If you would like more information about the race or to register online visit the NATRC site here.

Spruce Creek Gallery – Nellysford to be featured in national magazines

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I was talking to Sue Bernard the other day when I was at Spruce Creek Gallery and she mentioned the gallery would be featured in several upcoming magazines, some national. About two weeks ago Spruce Creek was one of the many stops on a tour organized by the Virginia Tourism Corporation. It was part of the Central Virginia Media Tour promoting art galleries and antique shops across Central Virginia. “It’s such an honor,” says Sue. “This is a real treat to be featured in several magazines across the country. It brings such positive attention to Central Virginia and Nelson County,” she continues.

Photos, Paul Purpura, NCL-Magazine

SPG-1
Above Peggy Lucke, Staff Writer for American Style Magazine, Jonathon Hillin, Publisher of Art Showcase Magazine, Kevin Crowe, wood fired potter, of Tye River, Trew Bennett, potter, of Faber, Fred Hean, furniture maker from Charlottesville, Tom Clarkson, a Charlottesville potter, and Sue Bernard, discuss some of the art and pottery on display at Spruce Creek.

SPG-2
Here Himlin and Mary Reid, co-owner of Spruce Creek Gallery, talk about details of the Central Virginia Media Tour held in April.

Sue tells us the schedule for the writers and photographers included an 80 page itinerary of information and stops along the way. The articles will run in a future issue. We’ll let you know when we know!
TS

2007 Piney River Triathlon Results

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Piney River Triathlon 2007
Photo courtesy Paul Purpura for NCL Magazine

Congrats to all the 2007 Piney River Triathlon winners!

Click here and here to download this year’s results.

Thanks Emily Harper for sending this in!

-YS

Mr T’s Wed Forecast – T-storms still coming but delayed

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Updated for Severe Thunderstorm Warning – Augusta County 2:47PM EDT

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
236 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2007

VAC015-820-021900-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070502T1900Z/
CITY OF WAYNESBORO VA-AUGUSTA VA-
236 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2007

…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT
FOR CITY OF WAYNESBORO…AUGUSTA COUNTY…

AT 229 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM EXTENDED FROM
FISHERSVILLE THROUGH MINT SPRING… JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CITY OF
STAUNTON. IT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. WAYNESBORO…
SHERANDO… AND STAURTS DRAFT WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
BEFORE 3 PM.

A quick look at the radar show intense storms right on the NW Nelson – Augusta line. Wouldn’t be surprised if part of Nelson gets under wamring shortly. Especially along the BRP toward WIntergreen & Afton Mountain.
-T-

Updated 5.2.07 – 2:00 PM EDT for thundershower development:
As the latest radar image courtesy of Wunderground.com shows, thunderstorms are developing over Central VA.
Radar

Look for thunderstorms to become more numerous over the next several hours. Some could be intense as indicated in the nowcast by NWS:

Now
Look for scattered thunderstorms to develop across central Virginia between 1 and 2 PM. Any thunderstorms that do develop will contain locally heavy rain and brief gusty winds. Near a half inch of rain would be possible from the stronger storms.

To check the latest radar image click here.

More this evening.
-T-


Original Morning post below:

Good Wednesday!

As weather can do, it has changed a bit over the past 24 hours. But I must admit I didn’t go with my gut (and again with Blacksburg NWS) who actually got it right and DC – Sterling got it wrong! The guys in Blacksburg had predicted a front that is in the area will stall about over Nelson, maybe a little south over the next couple of days. As long as it’s in the vicinity our chances for rain stay in the forecast. The front has also slowed down and not advanced as quickly as first thought.

This is a current surface map courtesy of Accu Weather.com
Surface Map Wed AM

A shortened version of what NWS Sterling says this about it’s movement:

Short term /today through tonight/…

frontal boundary currently near the Maryland/PA line. Earlier elevated
showers and thunderstorms have now moved south of the front…Overall…the activity has
decreased in intensity. Temperatures in the vicinity of the boundary
are in the lower 60s…with lower to middle 70s still being reported
in the southern County forecast area.

The cold front will continue to sink southward over the County forecast area today.
Convection (lift which is needed to form storms) should focus ahead and right along the boundary this
afternoon. Isolated thunder this morning should become more
scattered in nature this afternoon…mainly over the southern County forecast area.
Ahead of the boundary…aided by middle 50s dew-points (available moisture – higher the reading the more moisture available to fuel storms)and heating…the
surface instability will increase through late morning and into the
afternoon.

The bottom line…expect convection (lift for storm development) to increase later this morning
and afternoon along and ahead of the boundary. Strong storms are
likely to develop mainly south of a line from Pendleton County Virginia to
Culpeper to Calvert County Maryland Line. Isolated severe reports
are possible. The main concern with the strong/isolated severe storms will
be damaging winds.

So today look for clouds to increase especially into the afternoon. Temps should easily make the mid 80’s a tad higher if the clouds hold off. At Wintergreen, Afton Mountain, Montebello, and other mountains above 2000 feet temps will be generally in the low and mid 70’s. The better chances for shower and thunderstorms will be this afternoon with the heating of the day. This helps fire thunderstorms. The more sun we get early in the day, the more likely scattered storms.

As of this post local radar is only showing light showers over WV. But look for those to increase. The local satellite shows broken clouds over our area now, but more clouds to the NW are working in.

Tonight scattered thunderstorms continue. Though this is not where everyone will see a widespread rain. Only about 40% of the area will see a shower at any given time. Lows in the mid 50’s with north to northeasterly winds. On the mountains look for temps around 50 for lows.

Thursday, I’ll call it partly cloudy. But, as long as the front is in the area, we’ll still have chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temps will cool Thursday as the front slips just to our south putting us on the northern side. Temps will struggle to make it out of the 60’s on Thursday with the clouds. Thursday night is cooler with temps in the mid 40’s and scattered showers.

By Friday we go mostly sunny with temps staying in the 60’s.

The weekend looks sunny overall with day time highs in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s. Mountains, obviously a bit cooler.

I’ll be updating later today as the frontal position changes. Like I said as long as it’s hanging around, conditions will be a bit unsettled for the next day or so.

Have a great Wednesday!
-T-

Nelson County May 2007 Events

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Nelson County Farmers Market
Nelson County Farmers Market features locally
produced farm and craft products from surrounding
area. Located under the tent at the entrance to
Stoney Creek, in Nellysford every Saturday through
September. 8 a.m.–12 p.m. May 5, 12, 19, 26
434-244-239

friday
may 18

Adaptation of the The Yoke of the Plow play at
Nelson County High School
7 pm Friday and 2 pm Sunday

saturday
may 19

Nocturne Concert series @ DelFosse Vineyards
& Winery
Join us every other Saturday night through November
17 for our evening concert series. Bring a picnic
or reserve a table. $
434-263-6100

saturday
may 19

The Nelson County Library Book Club
The Nelson County Library Book Club meets at the
library to discuss a recently published novel, The Jade Hook
a murder mystery of the whodunit variety, set in
the rainforest of New Zealand. The author, Jack
Shea, a Nelson County resident will field questions
about the writing process, describe how he decided
to write the book, and plans for future novels. He
will also autograph books for attendees.
434-263-6347

sunday
may 20

Band Fair 2007 @ North Branch School
There will be wine tastings, hot dogs/burgers, other
refreshments, and family activities such as face
painting, sand art, a cake walk and a bake sale.
Tickets are on sale at North Branch School (540-
456-8450), Cardinal Point Winery (456-8400),
Parkway Pharmacy in Crozet, Timberlake Pharmacy,
Greenberry’s and Market Street Wineshop. All
profits benefit North Branch School. $
540-456-8450

fri-sun
may 25-27

Montebello Spring Trail Ride
Bring your own horse to the Blue Ridge Mountains
and ride scenic trails through woodlands, meadows
and ridge tops. Includes 4 meals. Benefits the
volunteer fire & rescue company. $
540-377-5754

fri-mon
may 25-28

Memorial Weekend @ Wintergreen Resort
Four days of activities, including mountaintop fireworks!
The event includes music, food, a fun-filled
day at the lake and much more.
434-325-8180

saturday
may 26

May Day Mead Tasting at Hill Top Berry Farm
& Winery
Taste and learn about the worlds oldest alcoholic
beverage, Mead. Enjoy a tasting tour of the middle
ages featuring Cyser, Pyments and Melomels, along
with entertainment. 11–5 p.m. $
434-361-1266

Wintergreen Performing Arts presents a Memorial
Day Weekend Military Band Concert
At The Evans Center at Wintergreen Resort $
434-325-8292

The Hamner Theater presents In the Cabaret
with Lisa Roberson
Lisa draws on the rich influences of coal country,
mountain culture, folk, gospel and bluegrass music
to write her own original country blues. Appearing
with Lisa Roberson ; will be Tom Proutt on Lead
Guitar and Vocals, Emily Gary; on Bass and Vocals,
Brandon Johnson on Mandolin and Banjo, and
Percussionist Daron Snapp. All cabaret shows begin
at 7:30 pm, Doors open at 6:30 pm.$
434-361-199

Cabin & Farm Tours @ Humpback Rocks
Cabin and farm tours of Humpback Rocks Mountain
Farm begin for the season. Enjoy the sounds of
Breakin’ Nu Ground String Band, a prize winning,
completely entertaining Old Time band from Lexington.
1-4 pm. Blue Ridge Pkway @ milepost 5.8.
540-943-4716

sat-sun
may 26-27

Memorial Weekend Celebration @ Wintergreen
Winery
Kick off the lazy days of summer with a festive day
of wine, music, picnics and fun for all! Admission
includes live music, wine and food tasting, riverside
picnics, wine/gift shop specials and door prizes. A
scenic family – friendly setting. 10-6 p.m.
434-361-2519

28th Fiesta de Primavera @ Mountain Cove Winery
The oldest single winery festival in Virginia.
Celebrate the release of new wines, with live music,
good food and great tours. No pets, please. 11-5
p.m. $
434-263-5392

Valley Green Gallery Summer Kick-off Art and Craft
Show
The 16th annual juried art and craft show. Demonstrations
and music. Saturday 10-5 p.m; Sunday
11–4 p.m.
434-263-6820

Harry Baldwin and percheron horses @ Humpback
Rocks
11 – 3pm. Blue Ridge Pkway @ milepost 5.8.
540-943-4716

Wintergreen Nature Foundation – NCL Weather Station Outage – STATUS – resolved

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Update: 4.30.07 3:17 PM EDT
NCL-TWNF is back up and running- Jennifer Jenkins just e-mailed from there and said the wireless router problem is corrected.
Thanks Jen!
-T-

We are aware of the NCL-TWNF outage at Devil’s Knob. I just spoke to them a few minutes ago and understand they have had a wireless router failure on site. The weather station is working properly, but cannot report to the internet due to the outage. They have a call into a technician and the station will be back up and running as soon as their wireless connection there is resolved.

We are also aware that NCL-WINTERGREEN WINERY is offline as well, their problems are dialup internet related.

Though we own the actual weather gathering stations, the software that allows you to see this on the internet generally sits on the computer owned by that establishment. If they encounter a problem – our equipment mounted there is not able to properly report to to the internet. Though we strive to keep everything running properly, some of the problems are beyond our control and we have to wait on the resolution on that end.

Right now our station NCL-Nelson County Life Magazine and NCL-DELFOSSE WINERY are working properly.

We will keep you updated on the status.

Thanks!
-T-

Mr. T’s Monday & work week forecast

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Rodes Farm-Weems
Photo by: Henri & Elaine Weems
Rodes Farm – Nelson County, Virginia

Good Monday to everyone,

What a beautiful weekend here in Central Virginia! Don’t believe it, check out the picture above sent to us by Elaine & Henri Weems. This was a scene from over at Rodes Farm. Look at the brilliant flowers and the skies! Thanks for sending that our way. And remember if you have a great pic you think would be nice to include here in our weather updates send it on to: weather@nelsoncountylife.com

We had a great weekend covering events here in Nelson over the weekend. We did our first ever NCL live blog from Wintergreen Winery’s 14th anniversary celebration.
WIntergreen Winery table
Above our friends Bruce & Deb Flight from Richmond / Stoney Creek joined us. Was a great afternoon and as usual Jeff & Tam were excellent hosts! Congrats on Wintergreen’s 14th! I say 14 more!

Weather today will be even better than yesterday. Local satellite shows some thin clouds drifting in from West Virginia, but nothing serious and we will see plenty of sun today and temps warming into the mid 80’s valley & near 80 mountains. Winds will still be a little breezy from time to time westerly with gusts up to 25 MPH. Tonight will be mild with temps in the mid-50’s valley & mountain. Northerly winds will go light around 5MPH later into the night.

Tuesday we see a repeat of Monday with partly cloudy skies and temps in the mid 80’s again. Winds do shift more southerly Tuesday increasing to around 20 MPH by the end of the day. That will bring in some gulf moisture so it will feel a little warmer with increased humidity. At Wintergreen, Montebello, Afton Mountain, Schuyler, look for temps a tad cooler with highs in the upper 70’s – winds about the same. Tuesday night we go mostly cloudy with a chance for a shower transported in on those southerly winds. We might even see a thunderstorms here or there.

Wednesday we go back partly sunny with temps slightly cooler in the upper 70’s. As we head toward the end of the week we are cooler with highs in the low and mid 70’s but still a pleasant week ahead. No real organized storm systems in view other than the little “fly” Tuesday night.

This would be a great week to plant a tree….mmmm we did on Sunday.
Here Ken Harris from A.M. Fog digs up a beauty of a red maple for us. We transplanted it on Sunday.
Ken-Tree AM Fog

And not to be outdone, his wife Yvonne and their newbie daughter Olivia had to supervise on such a beautiful day!
Yvonne & Olivia AM Fog

Was a great weekend to be outside and this week will be equally as nice!

Enjoy and have a great Monday!
-T-

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