Good Sunday & Monday,

As I predicted in my earlier post today, the guys at NWS in DC / Sterling finally decided it was time to issue a high wind warning for tonight beginning at 8PM EDT until 2PM EDT Tuesday morning. I have no idea why these guys never saw the same data I was looking at earlier and issued it then. Like I said those guys in Blacksburg know their stuff and I agree with them about 90% of the time. Ashamed they don’t forecast for our county.

Ok here’s the actual High Wind Warning that extends from roughtly Warrenton south through Nelson and on down:

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
351 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

…HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
HIGH WIND WARNING…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
2 AM EDT TUESDAY.

AS LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST…STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BY MONDAY MORNING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR
MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

This system is of some concern since we have had over 24 hours of a soaking rain. Not flooding in most places, but soaking. So shallow rooted or brittle trees will have no problem being uprooted in that kind of wind. Good news it begins to settle a bit by Tuesday morning.

Generally speaking rainfall totals have been around and inch to an inch and a half over the past 24 hours. Here at NCL-Nelson County Life Magazine we have had .69″ of rain since midnight today. NCL-Wintergreen Nature Foundation on Devil’s Knob has had 1.02″ of rain since midnight. At the foot of the mountain at NCL-Wintergreen Winery in Beech Grove they’ve had 1.26″ since midnight. Overall since the rain begain the totals have been just around the 2 inch mark. We even had a clap of thunder this afternoon and some pea sized hail was reported at Wintergreen Mountain at Three Ridges by Paul Purpura, one of our NCL photographers.

As you can see in this picture taken at Spruce Creek behind Sue Bernard’s gallery, the creek was running swiftly from all of the rain:
Photo by: Yvette Stafford – Nelson County Life Magazine

Sunday night look for those winds mentioned above to begin picking up. By early evening before midnight they should easlily be kicking up toward the 30 MPH mark and gusting to over 50+ MPH after midnight. We could also see snow showers as temps cool, especially mountains. Lows valley around 35 degrees mountains about 32 to 33 degrees.

Monday continues to be very windy with similar conditions. Remember on the mountains wind velocities increase beyond those speeds as they rush over the ridges.
It will be partly sunny with a scattered shower and temps in the mid 50’s valley and low 40’s mountains with some snow showers there. Clouds roll in from time to time thoroughout the day as this system moves away. Monday night winds continue with partly cloudy skies and temps in the mid 30’s a passing shower is again possible.

By Tuesday winds begin to subside and temps start moderating. Temps reach near 70 on Saturday and the lower 70’s by Sunday. There is a chance of scattered showers on Thursday, nothing major.

Have a great Sunday night and Monday morning. Hold on to your hat!
Tommy

Updated 4.15.07 12:38 PM EDT for flood watch expiration @ 4PM

Stay dry!
Tommy

Previous post
Good Sunday morning.

What a lousy Saturday it was. No really heavy rain, but pretty much light to moderate rain all day. Here at NCL-Nelson County Life Magazine we picked up around a half inch of rain for Saturday. Up on the mountain at NCL-Wintergreen Nature Foundation they picked up just over a half an inch at .65″. The amount at the foot of the mountain at NCL-Wintergreen Winery was .55″ For whatever reason our NCL station over at Delfosse Winery is not online and has been was off the entire day Saturday. Not sure of the problem. But we’re looking into it.

A flood watch is in effect until Sunday afternoon as much heavier rains are expected to move in. Here’s the official text from NWS bulletin late Sat night:

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
944 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

…FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON…

* INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING…WITH A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY NEAR
MIDDAY…BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM…WITH SCATTERED LOCATIONS
RECEIVING AS MUCH AS THREE INCHES. LOCATIONS ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOME OF THE
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS.

* CREEKS AND STREAMS…AND LOW LYING URBAN AREAS MAY FLOOD DUE
TO HEAVY RAIN.

Look for rains to continue Sunday, heavy at times, and look for the winds to gradually increase throughout the afternoon. Gusts to 30 MPH will be common and even higher Sunday night after midnight. 40+ MPH a possibility.

Sunday will be a tad warmer than Saturday with temps in the mid 50’s valley and upper 40’s mountains. The big changes come Sunday night when colder air moves in and chances for some snow move into the area as this system exits NE. Chances for a light snow covering are obviously better at Wintergreen, Afton Mtn, and points along the Blue Ridge. In the valley we may see some snow Sun night, but nothing to get worked up over. Temps on the mountains Sun night upper 20’s – mid 30’s valley. Look for winds to steadly increase after midnight Sunday into Monday morning.

By Monday we begin to see some sun from time to time but the winds are going to be brutal. The average speeds Monday afternoon are from the NW around 30 MPH with gusts as high as 55 MPH. That’s here in the valley, on the mountains higher gusts are possible. Hold down your hat!

Things settle down by Tuesday with a slight chance of showers Thursday. By next weekend, finally, we may get near 70 degrees!

Let’s keep our fingers crossed!

More later today on the potential for flooding and the high winds on their way.

Have a great Sunday,
Tommy

Updated 4-14-07 1:31 EDT

This is why I always say don’t always listen to the National Weather Service in DC. They, many times, don’t know what’s happening on the ground here in Nelson so far down south.

NWS Forecast as of 1251 PM EDT Sat Apr 14 2007

Now
Expect occasional sprinkles through the early afternoon across northern and central Virginia and eastern West Virginia. Isolated locations may receive enough to barely wet the ground… otherwise the rainfall will not be enough to measure through 3pm.

Funny, our gauge here at the Nelson County LIfe Magazine office shows a fifth of an inch of rain since midnight. Certainly not a huge amount, but certainly enough to measure.

Other NCL weathernet sites such as NCL-Wintergreen Winery show .22″ of rain since midnight and on the mountain at NCL-Wintergreen Nature Foundation, they have had cold .22″ of rain up there as well. Enough to be measured don’t you think? Speaking of rainfall mesurements, here’s a neat link of just rain and flood guages at locations in other parts of the county. You can’t get temps there, but you can see rainfall amounts. Thanks to Henri Weems of Rodes Farm for telling us about this one. Very nice!

Have a great Saturday afternoon,
Tommy

Older post below:
Good Friday evening and Saturday morning to everyone.

What a beautiful Friday. Mostly sunny skies and temps in the 60’s made it feel pretty nice other than a nip in the occasional winds. Today was my first try at learning golf. More on that later in the weekend and next month’s issue, but what a perfect day to be out there learning. Sean Taylor, the golf director at Wintergreen is my instructor, man does he know his stuff!

Later Yvette and I went up the mountain to The Wintergreen Nature Foundation where Mr. Paul Saunders, author of Heartbeats of Nelson, had his first small book signing. What a wonderful piece of work. The book is excellent! We’ll have more on that later this weekend as well times for the next signing, which includes the folk fest at Pharsalia next weekend. You are going to want a copy of this book believe me, you’lll be very sorry if you don’t get one.

Weatherwise, look for more rain over the next 48 hours. Friday night clouds began streaming in and some light rain is possible Saturday morning, though the heavier rain comes Saturday night into Sunday. Lows Friday will be in the upper 30’s valley and mid 30’s mountains. If the clouds hold off for a bit temps could drop a degree or so colder, but not very likely as the clouds moving in will tend to hold the temps up.

On Saturday rain begins – again heavier later- with temps pretty much staying in the low 50’s for everyone, around 50 mountains. Sat night rain increases and becomes heavy as we head toward the morning hours Sun.

NWS mentions this in their Friday evening discussion:

Saturday night through Sunday morning…and this is when there is
the highest probability for heavy rainfall.

Lows Sat night low 40’s valley and mid 30’s mountain. Some snow / rain mix could occur there. Sun rain contiunues, heavy from time to time, with increasing northerly winds. Temps in the valley don’t make it much above the mid 50’s valley ( I think that is optimistic) and in the 40’s mountains.

By Sunday night, this is where it could get interesting in the mountains. Especially, if you are on the west side of the Blue Ridge, look for snow developing. Several inches not out of the question at the higher elevations.

NWS says it this way in their discussion:

Based off the weather/quantitative precipitation forecast grids from our gridded database…a
snow total of 4 to 8 inches is expected during that time frame. HPC
westward graphics support this thinking. A Winter Storm Watch may be
necessary in future shifts to address the heavy snow potential.

Another big change, high winds moving in Sun night into Monday. Gusts well above 30+ MPH are possible. Though by Monday we do get partly sunny skies, temps again in the mid 50’s valley.

The rest of the week looks quiet with temps finally hitting the lower 60’s for highs by week’s end.

I’ll be updating again Saturday by afternoon, as this system is being closely watched for changes. Also pics and more from other things happening as well.

Have a great weekend!
Tommy

Good Thurs evening and Friday morning to all,

What a beautiful day on Thursday. Yvette and I spent some time over at Oak Ridge looking over their new facilities. Heather showed us the new building, what a beautiful place. Check out the sky in this picture below. This is the old carriage house on the property.

Wish I had better news for everyone over the next 48 to 72 hours, but it doesn’t look like a very good weekend shaping up temp wise or sky wise. Overnight Thursday pretty boring – temps fall to the upper 30’s overnight generally speaking. Enjoy Friday, it’ll be the last really nice day until next week around Monday when we have partly sunny skies back and temps in the 50’s.

Friday looks to be in the low 60’s valley and 50’s mountains with plenty of sun. By Friday night showers roll in after midnight and continue really until Sunday night when it tapers off as it changes to, yes…snow again. I give up! Not widespread snow, just heavy wet flakes that really do nothing. Just reminds you it’s still spring and not summer. The obvious better chances are in the mountains at places like Montebello, Wintergreen, Afton Mountain, Love, Ennis. Though even the valley could see some snow as the system pulls out of here and some colder air filters in. Generally speaking next week after this mess is out of here we can expect milder temps in the 60’s for daytime highs and overnight lows in the 40’s.

The system this weekend has the potential to produce some pretty heavy rain. The folks at the weather service mention this Thurs night in their discussion:

Area quantitative precipitation forecast of 1 to 2 inches seems likely. Ptype is still uncertain
with some wet snow likely in higher terrain to northwest.

There is also more discussion about snow, though no real widespread concerns:

.

The one silver lining I do see, Saturday won’t be a complete washout everywhere. Though cool, the majority of the rain moves in later in the day and then stays around till late Sunday night.

Was talking to Dr. Jim Rice today in Nellysford, time to get the chompers cleaned again, and he mentioned that he was in Florida last week. Says he wishes he could bring the weather from there here….I agree, boy do I agree!

Just remember, we’re only days from really warm temps, cut off jeans, and the days of summer, but you sure couldn’t tell it right now!

Have a good Thurs evening and early Fri morning.

More later in the day Friday,
Tommy

Good morning,

Just a quick update for Tuesday morning weatherwise, I’ll have more detail later in the day.

Look for mostly sunny skies today and moderating temps. We’ll easily make it into the mid and upper 50’s today in the valley with slightly cooler temps above in the mountains. Wouldn’t be surprised if we hit 60 in some places. But for everyone it will feel much nicer since the sun will be out and the winds light around 5-8 MPH. Tonight, for the first time, we won’t be under a freeze warning. Overnight valley lows will be just above freezing in the 33-35 dgeree range valley and right around 32 on the mountains. Rain might slip in by daylight but look more likely later in the day Wed. If some of the initial light precip makes it in early a little frozen precip could be seen before changing to rain as the temps warm. It won’t be very warm Wed with highs around the upper 40’s to near 50 in the valley and not out of the 40’s mountains.

Speaking of no more freeze warnings, I saw Mr. Paul Saunders this morning on Channel 13 out of Lynchburg talking about the impact of freezing temps on the apple and peach crops. If anyone should know it’s him! He’s been doing that for decades. He said the real extent of the damage won’t be know for about two weeks. Let’s keep out fingers crossed! Paul is a great guy and a fine person!

Once this system moves out by late Thursday we have temps in the 60’s on Friday just before a more powerful system makes it’s way here by the weekend. Saturday looks to be the best day for perhaps some thunder. I am still pondering the chances for severe weather this weekend. A bit less likely than thinking yesterday but still not totally ruled out. Remember, long range forecasting is very unreliable, I don’t care what the experts tell you. Real accuracy goes way, way down after 12-24 hours out and a 7 day forecast, you might as well roll the dice. I expect lots of disagreement with this, but it’s true. The longer out you go in an extended forecast the more unreliable it becomes. General trends are possible, but accuracy it limited.

Oky enough on that for now, I’ll have an afternoon update with more.

Have a great Tuesday and enjoy the sun!
Tommy