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Mr. T’s Workweek Forecast

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TS-Map

Good Monday to everyone,

As I prepare this morning forecast, I am in West Tennessee about 700 miles away from you there in Nelson. Already miss those mountains! It’s pretty flat here, pretty but in a different way. This is where I grew up almost on the Mississippi River.

Look for another super wonderful day weatherwise! We’ll see partly cloudy skies in Nelson County. Temps will warm nicely well into the lower & mid 80 valley, mountains around 80 degrees. So a warm day all around. Monday night we become mostly cloudy with temps falling into the upper 50’s valley and around 55 on the mountains.

By Tuesday we see chances of rain work into the forecast. Highs still mild generally in the upper 70’s.

We get a brief break in the rain Wednesday but by Thursday the better chances for rain surface continuing till around Friday then we clear Friday night. Temps cool to lower 70’s for daytime highs over the weekend, but we should see plenty of sunshine.

Ironically the system you will see there in Nelson is already starting to affect where I am now in W-TN. We may actually see severe weather here by Wednesday.

I’ll update again as things progress on the forecast.

Have a great Monday!
-T-

Mr. T’s Sunday forecast & work week outlook

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Tommy Weather Map

Good Sunday,

What a great weekend thus far and Sunday won’t be a disappointment either! Today look for sunny skies and temps ranging from low to mid 80’s valley and lower to mid 70’s mountains. As of 10:40 EDT the NCL- Wintergreen Nature Foundation Wunderground station showed a mild temperature of 74 degrees. This is about as close to perfect as you can get!

Tonight temperatures drop to upper 40’s to near 50 valley and around 46 to 47 degrees mountains. We will start having southerly winds later today so temps will stay up a bit warmer tonight than previous nights.

On Monday the nice weather continues with mostly sunny skies and temps low 80’s valley – mid 70’s mountains. Southerly winds do increase in the afternoon to around 15-20 MPH. Monday night looks to be mild again with lows valley 55 – mountains low to mid 50’s depending on cloud cover. Mid 50’s if clouds bank up against the mountains overnight. The winds stay up in the 10-20 MPH range overnight Monday.

By Tuesday skies become partly sunny as some clouds begin working in – in advance of the next system. Still mild temps in the upper 70’s & upper 60’s mountains. By Wednesday afternoon chances of rain move into the area with temps again in the upper 70’s valley – and around 70 mountains.

The chances for thundershowers continues through Friday.. By Saturday, right now it looks like the rain will be on it’s way out of here. Great timing!

Enjoy your Sunday, it’s gonna be a beautiful one!
-T-

Pharsalia Folk Festival

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What a wonderful day for the Pharsalia Folk Festival. You’ve read about it in our April issue of the magazine. Today we went out and spent some time there. Huge turnout for the event and Sunday looks to be as beautiful a day as Saturday. So if you haven’t made it out there yet, make sure you go on Sunday!

All Photos: Tommy Stafford – Nelson County Life Magazine

Doug Coleman
Above Doug Coleman of The Wintergreen Nature Foundation, dressed as Patrick Henry, chats with one of the people dropping by.

banjo player
Here a young man from Amherst County plays tunes from the festival time period

Hilltop Berry
Kim Pugh of Hilltop Berry Farm & Winery pours wine for one of the folks at the festival. They along with Wintergreen Winery were making sure folks never got thirsty!

Dick Morgan & Yvette
Dick Morgan of Pharsalia chauffeurs Yvette along. Now that’s riding in style. We don’t think they had a Polaris back then!

Robert Ballard
Robert Ballard demonstrates how stone walls and foundations were created in the early days using only gravity and friction.

Pharsalia Front
There are many, many “in costume” period demonstrations. Here’s one in front of the main house at Pharsalia.

This is just a small sample of what you will see at the Folk Festival, be sure to make it out Sunday if you haven’t had the chance.

Mr T’s Perfect Weekend & Farmer’s Market Tent

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Updated Saturday evening: 4.21.07 5:45 PM EDT

Looks like the approaching system for next week has slowed a bit and the rain may not get in here until Wednesday night. Temps will stay nice and warm until then as well. Wednesday high temps could make the low and mid 80’s pretty easily until the rain cools us back to the 70’s for the remainder of the week to the weekend. Again showers won’t be widespread, but we could have scattered thunderstorms during the period. Rest of this weekend looks great. Sunny and warm with temps near 80 degrees again valley – around 70 mountains.

More in the Sunday post.

Have a good Saturday night.
-T-

Previous posts below

Good Saturday morning!

Wow, two days starting with sunshine. Sat outside this morning on the deck and had coffee watching the sun come up. Perfect start to the day!

Don’t believe this is the perfect day, check out the folks down at the Farmer’s Market next to Wintergreen Real Estate in Nellysford. This morning they started putting up the tent for this year’s Farmer’s Market starting the first Saturday in May. The guys at Wintergreen Real Estate sprung for the new tent after the wind from Ernesto took it down late last summer.

Photos by: Tommy Stafford – Nelson County Life Magazine
Tent-1

Inside Tent

tent-3

You know we’re headed to warmer days when you see the tent at the Farmer’s market going up. Yippie!

Weather Wise
This weekend will be as perfect as it gets weather wise. High pressure (that means good weather generally speaking) is to our north and will keep us sunny for the weekend and the start of the work week. We’ll be around the 80 degree mark both Saturday & Sunday valley, around low 70’s mountains. The frost advisory for areas north and west of BRP has been cancelled. I suspect there were some areas of frost, but this wasn’t nearly as bad as those five nights of freezing temps earlier in the month. Overnight lows for the remainder of the weekend will be generally in the 40’s above and below, just in the lower 40’s mountains.

There are some changes to the extended forecast since my last post yesterday. Temperature wise we continue to be mild. On Monday we’ll see lower 80’s valley with sunny skies. Mountains slightly cooler around 70. Tuesday we’ll see more clouds move in – in advance of the next system impacting our weather.

By Tuesday evening we’ll see clouds increasing and showers a possibility. We’re switching more of what’s called a zonal flow in our weather patterns by mid week next week. That means weather systems tend to move straight from the west to east bringing with it mild pacific air, but that also lets the systems kinds of move right at us one after another. Temps will hold up into the 70’s next week, but so will our chances for rain off and on as we get into mid-week. Clouds hang in there as well, though we will se some sunshine from time to time. There are no heavy rains headed our way at this time, but showery conditions. By next weekend we could see more organized weather having a greater impact. I’ll be keeping an eye on that system and talk more about it as we get closer. Remember what I say about those long range forecasts, might as well roll the dice!

By the way, if any of you have a neat weather pic, send it to us. I want to start displaying the weather pic of the day as I forecast. Just e-mail it to: weather@nelsoncountylife.com Just tell me a little about where it was shot, what we’re looking, at who you are, etc.

Have a great weekend and don’t forget about the Pharsalia Folk Festival this weekend, both Saturday and Sunday.

-T-

Remembering VT

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There’s not much more I can add to this. What a great bunch of folks and what class.
We do remember, and thanks to Helene out at Saunders Brothers for sending this our way.
Saunders Bro - VT

Mr. T’s Weekend Forecast – Nelson County, VA – including Wintergreen

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Updated: 4.20.07 3:25PM EDT – for mention of frost advisory west of BRP

Good Friday evening. Not much change in the forecast, however, as I mentioned in the post Friday morning, with clear skies we will have excellent radiational cooling tonight especially when the winds die down.(without clouds the heat of the day escapes upward) Here in the immediate Nelson area a little less of a problem, but still could see some spotty frost in areas, especially in those low spots. It won’t take much on a night like tonight.

NWS Sterliing has issued a Frost Advisory in neighboring Augusta County on the west side of the mountain, but not east:

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
243 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2007

MDZ003>007-VAZ025>031-WVZ050>053-055-210400-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FR.Y.0001.070421T0600Z-070421T1500Z/
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…HAGERSTOWN…FREDERICK…WESTMINSTER…
STAUNTON…WAYNESBORO…HARRISONBURG…WINCHESTER…FRONT ROYAL…
MARTINSBURG…CHARLES TOWN
243 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2007

…FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
FROST ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT
SATURDAY.

CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH. MANY
LOCATIONS IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND
TONIGHT WILL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FROST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS EXPECTED. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

Though we aren’t under an official advisory here at Wintergreen, Lovingston, Faber, Afton, etc – it’s still possible to see some frost. Dewpoints right now are running around the lower 40’s here at our NCL office in Greenfield but are in the upper 30’s on the other side of the mountain. Think we’ll see those temps lower enough tonight to have the frost mentioned.

Just be aware of that and remember we aren’t really out of the “frosting” woods until late this month / early May so keep an eye on those plants.

Have a great weekend!
-T-

Good Friday morning! TGIF!

Wow what a week it has been. It’s been a tough week here in Virginia, weather wise and more. First let’s remember all of the families at VT today at noon. That’s the time set aside for folks to remember the people who lost their lives in the tragedy earlier this week, and the families left behind. It’s been a hell of a week for them.

Weather wise it was a pretty grim start to the week as well. Cold, high winds, snow, power outages, you name it we had a little of everything. Fortunately today marks the beginning of a change in the weather patterns over the next 7-10 days. Finally we are working back toward more seasonal normals which should be around 70 degrees average for daytime highs. We’ll easily make that in the coming days and then some!

Today look for mostly sunny skies and temps near 70 valley and 63 or so mountains. Winds will be around 5-8 MPH from the north. Tonight skies remain clear and with those clear skies we cool pretty easily to around 40 degrees valley – mountains 35 to 37 degrees.

Weekend Outlook

Saturday – Sunny & 75 below upper 60’s mountains
Sunday – Sunny & 79 valley – 73 mountains

Lows both of those nights will be generally in the 40’s – lower 40’s mountains.

By next week look for 80 degrees on Monday and Tuesday – Tuesday we see slight chances for rain – Wednesday, Thurs & Friday look a tad cooler but still miid with temps cooling to the low and mid 70’s. Don’t see any freezing temps in the extended period.

In short, we end the week much better than we started it. Enjoy this weather today and really enjoy it tomorrow. Yvette and I will be heading out to Pharsalia on Saturday for the Folk Festival. This is going to be great and perfect weather for it. Everyone in the Nelson Rotary and at Pharsalia have done an excellent job in getting ready for it.

We’ll see you there!

Have a great weekend!
-T-

Want some wine?

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Was out at Wintergreen Winery yesterday. Jeff and the entire crew were bottling lots of their wines when I was over there. In the photos below they were bottling their Thomas Nelson White. Yummy!
TNW Line
Photos: Tommy Stafford – Nelson County Life Magazine

You might notice something a little different in the label too. Yep, they have come up with some really neat new label designs for their wines.

It’s a tough job bottling all of that wine, boxing it up, and getting it ready for the upcoming season.

Lisa line

Jeff truck

Makes you appreciate it much more when you are sitting out there at the table enjoying a bottle of wine on a sunny afternoon!

Mr. T’s Thursday weather forecast Nelson County, VA

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Good Thursday morning!

A pretty uneventful day on tap for most of the area. If you think it’s been a cool or cold several weeks you are right. Was reading the discussion this morning from the NWS office in DC / Sterling:

Past 12 days balt (Baltimore) as cold as ever
recorded. District of Columbia is 2nd coldest. Another day of continue cool temperatures is on
tap for the area as the now distant upper low still has enough
influence to keep the flow out of the NE off the water.

Has been a pretty cool and damp month. Hang on that is about to change!

Days like this are a mere 24 hours away.

Photo by Paul Purpura for NCL Magazine – Lake MonacanLake Monacan April 2007

Thanks Paul for a great shot from earlier this week. Days like this are around the corner with a huge warm up headed our way next week. We’ll easily make it into the 70’s this coming weekend, again just in time for the Pharsalia Folk Festival. Know Foxie and Dick have been working hard out at Pharsalia to get it ready. Be sure you make it either Saturday or Sunday, or both!

Thursday look for mainly cloudy skies for pretty much the entire day. Temps without any sun will barely make it into the mid 50’s valley and mid to upper 40’s mountain. Light NE winds. We’ll see some light showers from time to time, but that’s about it. Tonight clouds remain with a passing shower. With clouds in place temps only fall to around 40 valley and upper 30’s mountains.

Here’s where it gets better. Friday we’ll start out with clouds moving to mostly sunny skies in the afternoon and temps in the upper 60’s valley, around 60 mountains. Friday night clear with temps generally around 40.

Saturday sunny temps low 70’s valley low 60’s mountain
Sunday sunny temps in the mid 70’s valley – mid 60’s mountain.

By next week we’re talking 80’s! – I am ready!

Everyone have a great Thursday,
-T-

Local Nelsonian & VT senior Jennie Tal on TV

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Updated 12:33 pm

We got this from Jennie just moments ago:

Hello again from a very somber Blacksburg, Virginia.
I wrote yesterday as comments to the story about the shootings here at Virginia Tech. The things I wrote on the Nelson County Life site were apparently picked up by a website, cybersoc.com, that was picked up by website that was picked up by CNN. This will act as a continuation of that.
I wrote yesterday that I had heard rumors of a friend that had been shot. Unfortunately, the rumors were true. Ryan “Stack” Clark was killed yesterday in West Ambler Johnston, a dorm on the Virginia Tech Campus. He was an RA on the fourth floor where the first shooting happened just after 7 yesterday morning. He and I were in the Marching Virginians together and he was the first person I met on the Virginia Tech campus. There is a nice tribute to him on the MV website.

Jennie’s essay was first published on BickLickU.com. Read it here.

***

You’ve heard us refer to Jennie Tal a lot over the past several days. Jennie is special to us. She’s the transcriptionist for Nelson County Life Magazine. That means when we go out and interview someone, she’s the person that takes that audio file, types it out word for word, then returns it to us. We then write the stories you see in NCL from that. We call that verbatim in the biz! She’s also the daughter of Leslie and Rafael Tal, owners of The Mark Addy Inn B & B in Nellysford. We saw them Tuesday night, and like any parent with a youngster at VT, they have been very concerned over the past several days, but thankful their daughter is unharmed.

Jennie is also a senior communications major at VT. If you’ve been reading this blog over the past several days, Jennie broke the story reagrding the number of fatalities at VT. Early on was she was live blogging here on NCL and alerted us and you that it could be much worse than originally thought. Here’s the line that got everyone’s attention worldwide.

“Unconfirmed, I have heard that at triage there were more than 30 “black tags” at triage. That means body bags. I hope that’s not true.”

We get no joy out of the fact she was right or the fact she beat all of the major media, but it does show Jennie has a promising career in journalism should she choose to head that direction. In a day when media gets the facts wrong, often, Jennie got it right. Excellent job!

Tuesday night she was interviewed on News Hour with Jim Lehrer.

This is a screen grab of her from Tuesday’s interview: Courtest of PBS – News Hour with Jim Lehrer:

Jennie NHWJL
Great job Jennie!

Unfortunately the recent string of events is all too familiar to Yvette and me. Back in the fall of 2003 a few months before we moved here to Virginia, one of the last stories we covered on television news in Tennessee was a similar event. Though nothing as tragic as VT, it was a 12 hour ordeal that was just as nail biting.

Tommy covering event for CNN from the Dyersburg, TN hostage standoff in 2003. Screen grab courtesy of CNN and WPTY television Memphis.

Tommy CNN

The above shot is one of many live shots I did that day for networks from the scene. In this case a man with a gun took an entire math class hostage for the day. As luck would have it, Yvette and I were the only reporters nearby. We were off and on our way to a favorite Mexican restaurant when we got the info from a police contact of mine that the place had been put on lockdown and a man with a gun was inside. For hours we did live coverage by ourselves from the scene. Other media arrived late in the day.

Eventually the gunman inside began shooting students, the police rushed the building and shot him dead, rightfully so. That day ended 12 hours later. Three student were shot and airlifted out, but thankfully they survived. No others were injured. It’s a day we will never forget and when something like VT happens you are reminded even more…..
-T-

Mr T’s Forecast – Warmer temps on the way

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Good Wednesday to everyone,

Did you hear that last night? Yea, me too, nothing! For the first time in days the wind wasn’t howling. Yea, we still had some breezes, but nothing terrible. Wednesday look for partly cloudy skies and temps working toward near 60 degrees valley – around 50 mountains. A stray shower in particular on the mountain is possible, but nothing major. Clouds are across the area as shown on local satellite view. But you can see some breaks working in, think the afternoon will have plenty of sun mixed with clouds from time to time in most areas.

Wed night lows fall to around 43 degress valley and around 35 mountains. It will be mostly cloudy with again slight chances of a shower. Thursday mostly cloudy skies continue with a roughly 50/50 chance that someone will see a shower. Regardless it will be light rain and mainly confined to the west of the Blue Ridge vs east. Highs Thurs upper 50’s with light easterly winds.

After clouds Thursday the rest of the extended period look tremendous! Friday highs in the low 60’s with partly cloudy skies, Sat upper 60’s and Sunday 70+ ! Finally will feel more like it should for this time of year. Looks like a great weekend for the Pharsalia Folk Festival on Saturday and Sunday!

Have a great Wednesday!
Tommy

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