Update: 4.30.07 3:17 PM EDT
NCL-TWNF is back up and running- Jennifer Jenkins just e-mailed from there and said the wireless router problem is corrected.
Thanks Jen!
-T-

We are aware of the NCL-TWNF outage at Devil’s Knob. I just spoke to them a few minutes ago and understand they have had a wireless router failure on site. The weather station is working properly, but cannot report to the internet due to the outage. They have a call into a technician and the station will be back up and running as soon as their wireless connection there is resolved.

We are also aware that NCL-WINTERGREEN WINERY is offline as well, their problems are dialup internet related.

Though we own the actual weather gathering stations, the software that allows you to see this on the internet generally sits on the computer owned by that establishment. If they encounter a problem – our equipment mounted there is not able to properly report to to the internet. Though we strive to keep everything running properly, some of the problems are beyond our control and we have to wait on the resolution on that end.

Right now our station NCL-Nelson County Life Magazine and NCL-DELFOSSE WINERY are working properly.

We will keep you updated on the status.

Thanks!
-T-

Updated for mention of thundershower Saturday afternoon: 4.28.07 12:00 noon EDT

Good Saturday afternoon,

Just a quick update. There are a few dynamics coming together that may – and I say may – provide a shot at some showers maybe even an isolated thundershower this afternoon. This is on the backside of the system that moved through yesterday. A couple of upper air systems may provide light showers this afternoon. Regardless this won’t be enough to spoil much of anything, but might want to take a rain jacket or unbrella just in case for later today. It will get cool as clouds move in. The local satellite view shows clouds swirling in counterclockwise around the upper air disturbances. I do think best chances of rain will stay west of the BRP, but can’t rule out stray showers even in the Nelson, Wintergreen area. It will continue to be breezy from time to time with winds kicking up to 25 MPH with higher gusts. With Mr. Sun hiding on occasion, it will feel cool with the winds. For full forecast details info see previous post here.

The Blacksburg NWS office in Blacksburg mentions the possibility of thunder:

Near term /through tonight/…
Have adjusted probability of precipitation up slightly for this afternoon and added
isolated thunderstorms for all areas. Measurable rainfall looks like
almost a sure bet on the western slopes today. Also…model
soundings show thin cape developing across the County Warning Area as upper wave
moves overhead.

If you wade through the weather jargon – it essentially means what I said above. A slight chance of showers, but not a downpour day.

I wouldn’t cancel any plans on this one.

Have a great Saturday!
-T-

Updated: 4.25.07 5:36 EDT – for severe storms mention & Thursday
Good Wednesday evening,

Have a great Wed evening and Thursday,
-T-
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Previous post
Good Wednesday morning again from West TN.

I continue to keep an eye on several things affecting our weather here back in TN and there in Nelson over the coming 48 hours.

There are chances for rain over the next 2-3 days before we dry out. We won’t have contiunual rain, but decent shots for showers and then thunderstorms toward the end of the week.

Wednesday look for skies to be come mostly cloudy as the day progresses. Local satellite via Wunderground show partly cloudy skies across the area, but more clouds are streaming in from the west and SW. Temps today will be near 80 early then cooling as showers move in. The forscast models seem to miss the temps as we are getting more sunshine than expected. Some of the NCL Weathernet stations like NCL-Wintergreen Winery are already reporting upper 70’s. On the mountains look for temps in the low 70’s for highs.

Tonight about 40% of the area will see some scattered thunderstorms. Lows in the 50’s generally.

Thursday is pretty much a carbon copy of Wednesday with temps in the 70’s. By Thursday night chances for storms become better organized after midnight continuing into Friday.

The NWS office in Sterling is monitoring the situation for possibly severe storms in that period. Here’s part of what they say:

This
system has a history of producing weather over the central
US…would not be surprised to see a few strong/severe storms in the
middle Atlantic. Will go ahead and add mention to the severe weather potential statement with this
package issuance…

We certainly have the chances for severe weather here in TN where I currently am. You can take a look west to TX and see what’s been brewing. Just not confident yet that the system will hold together as well by the time it gets to Central Virginia.

The storm prediction center in OK shows us near the slight risk area for severe weather over the coming 48 hours.
Click this picture to enlarge:

The area inside the green is the slight risk area. On Friday it shifts slightly east, but we are still in it. The best chances for us seeing severe storms is after midnight Thursday and during the day Friday. By Friday evening we begin to see showers diminish with temps falling overnight into the mid 50’s.

Over the weekend look for mostly sunny skies on Saturday with temps in the low 70’s. ON Sunday partly cloudy with temps wamring to the mid and upper 70’s. Should be a great weekend to go out and hear Jan Smith at Wintergreen Winery! She and Jeff will be there playing. Yvette and I will be there for sure, never miss hearing them when we can. They are a great team!

Look like a nice weekend shaping up, so enjoy!

I will monitor the developing weather and update as needed.

Have a great Wednesday!
-T-