TGIF!

The long awaited unofficial start to summer is finally here! Memorial Day is generally thought of as the time when folks get out and begin enjoying the warm carefree days of summer. This weekend is near perfect weather wise.

Photography by Paul Purpura
Nelson County LIfe Magazine
Lake Monacan in Stoney Creek – Nellysford

Skies have cleared out over the past day or so and we’re left with mostly clear skies. Only occasional clouds have been moving through lately due to increased high pressure parked off the NC coast.

Lot’s happening this weekend. Above at Lake Monacan they will be trying to break a world record on Saturday with The Totally Tubular World Record Challenge. They’ll be trying to form the longest line of inner tubes. You can read more by clicking here. There are lots of event happening at Wintergreen this weekend you can see them all by clicking here. There is also a tennis tourney to at the Devil’s Knob tennis courts starting this weekend. It’s to raise money for The Wintergreen Nature Foundation and the rescue squad. Yep, Yvette is playing again this year. Her doubles partner is Debbie Flight from Richmond. Yvette did pretty good last year winning her bracket, we’ll see what happens this year! We’ll have pics from there over the weekend.

There are lots more events around. You can see more of them by scrolling through our datebook.

Thursday was a warm day with temps generally in the low 80’s for everyone in the valley . Few clouds were in the area due to the high pressure. That allowed for temps to cool nicely last night. Here at NCL-Nelson County Life Magazine here in Greenfield, reached a low of 51 degrees this morning. Upon the mountain NCL-Wintergreen Nature Foundation upon Devil’s Knob, we had a temperature inversion set up and they were actually warmer with a morning low of 57 degrees. That does happen from time to time.

The current map below will look pretty much the same all weekend long due to the high pressure we have been talking about off of the NC coast. With that high firmly seated there for the next few days, we will warm up and any fronts that try to make it through here will have a tough time.
Current-Sat Surface Map

Today’s forecast map, shows the high keeping chances for any organized afternoon thunderstorms at a minimum. We will see a storm here and there, but very few. A couple of cold fronts will make a run at us but they will get stalled just to the north and west.
Today’s Forecast Map

Today look for mostly sunny skies. I can’t totally rule out that lone renegade thunderstorm late in the day somewhere, but most folks will stay dry. High temps in Greenfield, Beech Grove, and Shipman will be around 85-86 degrees. On the mountains above 2000 feet along the BRP & Wintergreen, look for sunny skies and afternoon highs to top out around 77 degrees. Winds will be south around 5 MPH. Tonight clear skies lows valley 57-58 degrees – mountains about 55, provided we don’t have another inversion. Winds will be light after dark.

This weekend looks mostly sunny skies as we begin each day, but clouds will work in during the afternoon as scattered thunderstorms pop up from time to time. Temps generally in the mid to upper 80’s valley and mid 70’s mountains. There is a chance for scattered thunderstorms building with the daytime heating just about anywhere, but again most folks will remain dry. Monday is the best shot for thunderstorms, but again only about 40% of the area will see one.

Have a great Memorial Day weekend and bee looking for updates here over the entire weekend.

Remember to always come here for breaking updates throughout the county.

Tommy

Good Thursday to all,

Photo: Tommy Stafford
Nelson County Life Magazine

You’ve gotta love living here. Simply taking the trash off gives you views like these looking toward the mountains from the Rockfish Valley!

Yesterday topped out in the upper 70’s and around 80 once again. Clouds hung in there for much of the day due to a weak trough over the area. NCL-Nelson County Life Magazine here in Greenfield, reached a high of 80 degrees yesterday for the second day in a row. NCL-Wintergreen Nature Foundation upon Devil’s Knob, only reached an afternoon high of a cooler 65 degrees. In Lovingston at NCL-Tiger Fuel they reached a high of 76 degrees. To the SE at NCL-Mini Tara Vineyards in Arrington, Mike Patterson’s station there showed a high of 75. Back at the foot of Black Rock Mountain at Jeff Stone’s station in Beech Grove, NCL-Wintergreen Winery recorded an afternoon high of 77 degrees. I think those guys finished up bottling wines there, hopefully. Know they’ve had a busy couple of days!

Today’s current map below doesn’t show much of anything in our immediate area. There are no real features near Virginia. But high pressure continues to gain control over our weather. We will see fewer clouds today as that high takes grip.
Current-Sat Surface Map

On today’s forecast map, the high pressure area sets up just to the NE of Virginia. As the high gets in place, chances for thunderstorms diminish and sunny skies will prevail. It will be a tad warmer today and a continued warm up is still coming our way for the weekend, with someplaces nearing 90 degrees by Sunday.
Today’s Forecast Map

Thursday look for mostly sunny skies. I can’t totally rule out a renegade garden variety thunderstorm late in the day somewhere, but the odds are against it with the dome of high pressure setting up near us. High temps in Gladstone, Avon, and Lovingston will be around 82-83 degrees. On the mountains above 2000 feet along the BRP & Wintergreen, look for sunny skies and afternoon highs to top out around 73 degrees. Winds will be S @ 5-10 MPH Tonight clear lows valley 52-55 degrees – mountains about 48 degrees. Winds south and light around 5 MPH.

Tomorrow look for mostly sunny skies again and temps warming to 86 valley and around 76 mountains.

The upcoming Memorial Day weekend looks nearly perfect, with daytime highs in the mid and upper 80’s – lows around 60. Chances for any orgainzed thunderstorm activity remains low over the weekend. I do see a shot maybe for an isolated thunderstorm on Saturday afternoon as a cold front nears the VA-PA border, but with the high anchored firmly just to the east of Virginia, it will be tough for any kind of real storms to get going.

Have a great Thursday and be looking for a complete Memorial Day weather outlook Friday morning. We’ll also be adding lots of new pics over the weekend from the many events taking place. So be sure to glance from time to time over the weekend!

Tommy

Updated Tuesday afternoon 3:25 PM EDT 5.21.07

Here’s local radar. Look for scattered thunderstorms to slowly work through the Augusta / Western Nelson areas through the evening hours. Most people won’t see rain, but in isolated areas look for heavy downpours, and some frequent lightning. Skies wil be mostly cloudy overnight.

Good Tuesday,

It was a pretty day Monday with temps in the upper 70’s and low 80’s across the area. Here at NCL-Nelson County Life Magazine we reached a pleasant high of 82 degrees on Monday. Upon the mountain at NCL-Wintergreen Nature Foundation they reached an afternoon high Monday of a nice 77 degrees. To our east in Lovingston at NCL-Tiger Fuel they reached a Monday high of 82 degrees as well. Just up Route 29 in Hickory Creek in Faber, NCL-Delfosse Winery reported an afternoon high on Monday of a slightly cooler 79 degrees. Finally back SE at NCL-Mini Tara Vineyards in Arrington, Mike Patterson’s station there showed a Monday high of 82. So all in all a nice start to the week.

Today’s current surface map below continues to show that very weak cold front working it’s way south through Virginia today. The front gets stalled just to our south and as long as it’s around it does give us a slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. Again, isolated much like Monday afternoon’s lone thundershower in southern Nelson County.
Current-Sat Surface Map

High pressure builds in during the day Tuesday and will pretty much control our weather through the remainder of the week. The frontal area mentioned above hangs around today slightly south and again gives us that chance for a very isolated thunderstorm. But the building high pressure gives us plenty of sun and warm temps.
Today’s Forecast Map

Today look for partly sunny skies with that chance of a scattered afternoon thunderstorm. Again, most folks won’t see rain. High temps in Tye River, Wingina, Colleen and Nellysford will be around 77 degrees, perhaps 80 in some locations. On the mountains at Montebello, along the BRP and Wintergreen, look for afternoon highs to top out around 72-75 degrees. Winds will be light SE. Tuesday night we’ll see some clouds left over from any isolated storms with lows valley in the low 50’s – mountains about 50 degrees. Winds will be south about 5 MPH.

Wednesday look for mostly sunny skies mid 70’s valley and about 70 mountains.

The rest of the week looks generally the same with highs in the mid and upper 70’s reaching low 80’s by Friday, with lows in the 50’s. The next chance for any real thundershowers looks to be Memorial Day (next Monday) For now the upcoming holiday weekend looks great with partly cloudy skies and temps Sat in the low 80’s and mid 80’s by Sunday. A perfect looking weekend so far…but remember what those extended forecasts can be…a crap shoot! I’ll examine the latest data as we get closer, we should have a much better grip on the weekend by Wednesday.

Meanwhile enjoy your Tuesday!
Tommy

Good Monday.

Wow, what a great weekend! Temperatures were great over the weekend in the 70’s Saturday and around 80 on Sunday.

Take a look at this shot Mariah Custalow took yesterday of this Japanese Maple covered in snow at Riverside Nursery in Spruce Creek. Ok, I am fooling. This was one of the last snows we had here a few weeks ago.

Compare that to the shot just below. I took this one of the same tree yesterday at Stan Driver’s place (Riverside) with plenty of sunshine and warm temps. Glad we won’t be seeing any snow for a long time! But what a beautiful tree!

On the current surface map below a very weak cold front is working it’s way south through Virginia this morning. It’s not very strong and other than some passing clouds Monday morning it won’t have much effect.
Current-Sat Surface Map

The forecast map below shows the front or what’s left stalling south of Nelson along the NC-VA border. With that boundry nearby it’s possible we could see some showers, maybe a thudershower in the afternoon hours with daytime heating, but the best shot are points south of Nelson.
Today’s Forecast Map

For Monday look for partly cloudy skies with a chance of a scattered afternoon thunderstorm. Again, this would be rare, but not out of the question. High temps in Faber, Shipman, Roseland and Piney River will be around 78 degrees, perhaps 80 if the clouds stay thinned out. On the mountains at Montebello, the BRP and Wintergreen, look for afternoon highs to top out around 67 degrees. Winds will be light NE. Monday night we’ll see some clouds passing by from time to time with overnight lows valley in the low 50’s – mountains about 50 degrees due to the clouds in place. Winds will be light and variable from the south.

Tuesday the nice weather continues with highs a little cooler in the mid 70’s valley and upper 60’s mountains. Skies will be partly cloudy with light SE winds. Tuesday night look for temps to be in the mid 50’s valley with SE winds of 5-10 MPH and mountains around 52-53 degrees.

The rest of the week looks about the same with highs generally in the mid and upper 70’s with lows in the 50’s. The next chance for any real thundershowers looks to be Saturday and that looks to be very scattered at this point and not very organized thus far.

Have a great Monday!
Tommy