Updated 4-14-07 1:31 EDT

This is why I always say don’t always listen to the National Weather Service in DC. They, many times, don’t know what’s happening on the ground here in Nelson so far down south.

NWS Forecast as of 1251 PM EDT Sat Apr 14 2007

Now
Expect occasional sprinkles through the early afternoon across northern and central Virginia and eastern West Virginia. Isolated locations may receive enough to barely wet the ground… otherwise the rainfall will not be enough to measure through 3pm.

Funny, our gauge here at the Nelson County LIfe Magazine office shows a fifth of an inch of rain since midnight. Certainly not a huge amount, but certainly enough to measure.

Other NCL weathernet sites such as NCL-Wintergreen Winery show .22″ of rain since midnight and on the mountain at NCL-Wintergreen Nature Foundation, they have had cold .22″ of rain up there as well. Enough to be measured don’t you think? Speaking of rainfall mesurements, here’s a neat link of just rain and flood guages at locations in other parts of the county. You can’t get temps there, but you can see rainfall amounts. Thanks to Henri Weems of Rodes Farm for telling us about this one. Very nice!

Have a great Saturday afternoon,
Tommy

Older post below:
Good Friday evening and Saturday morning to everyone.

What a beautiful Friday. Mostly sunny skies and temps in the 60’s made it feel pretty nice other than a nip in the occasional winds. Today was my first try at learning golf. More on that later in the weekend and next month’s issue, but what a perfect day to be out there learning. Sean Taylor, the golf director at Wintergreen is my instructor, man does he know his stuff!

Later Yvette and I went up the mountain to The Wintergreen Nature Foundation where Mr. Paul Saunders, author of Heartbeats of Nelson, had his first small book signing. What a wonderful piece of work. The book is excellent! We’ll have more on that later this weekend as well times for the next signing, which includes the folk fest at Pharsalia next weekend. You are going to want a copy of this book believe me, you’lll be very sorry if you don’t get one.

Weatherwise, look for more rain over the next 48 hours. Friday night clouds began streaming in and some light rain is possible Saturday morning, though the heavier rain comes Saturday night into Sunday. Lows Friday will be in the upper 30’s valley and mid 30’s mountains. If the clouds hold off for a bit temps could drop a degree or so colder, but not very likely as the clouds moving in will tend to hold the temps up.

On Saturday rain begins – again heavier later- with temps pretty much staying in the low 50’s for everyone, around 50 mountains. Sat night rain increases and becomes heavy as we head toward the morning hours Sun.

NWS mentions this in their Friday evening discussion:

Saturday night through Sunday morning…and this is when there is
the highest probability for heavy rainfall.

Lows Sat night low 40’s valley and mid 30’s mountain. Some snow / rain mix could occur there. Sun rain contiunues, heavy from time to time, with increasing northerly winds. Temps in the valley don’t make it much above the mid 50’s valley ( I think that is optimistic) and in the 40’s mountains.

By Sunday night, this is where it could get interesting in the mountains. Especially, if you are on the west side of the Blue Ridge, look for snow developing. Several inches not out of the question at the higher elevations.

NWS says it this way in their discussion:

Based off the weather/quantitative precipitation forecast grids from our gridded database…a
snow total of 4 to 8 inches is expected during that time frame. HPC
westward graphics support this thinking. A Winter Storm Watch may be
necessary in future shifts to address the heavy snow potential.

Another big change, high winds moving in Sun night into Monday. Gusts well above 30+ MPH are possible. Though by Monday we do get partly sunny skies, temps again in the mid 50’s valley.

The rest of the week looks quiet with temps finally hitting the lower 60’s for highs by week’s end.

I’ll be updating again Saturday by afternoon, as this system is being closely watched for changes. Also pics and more from other things happening as well.

Have a great weekend!
Tommy

Good Thurs evening and Friday morning to all,

What a beautiful day on Thursday. Yvette and I spent some time over at Oak Ridge looking over their new facilities. Heather showed us the new building, what a beautiful place. Check out the sky in this picture below. This is the old carriage house on the property.

Wish I had better news for everyone over the next 48 to 72 hours, but it doesn’t look like a very good weekend shaping up temp wise or sky wise. Overnight Thursday pretty boring – temps fall to the upper 30’s overnight generally speaking. Enjoy Friday, it’ll be the last really nice day until next week around Monday when we have partly sunny skies back and temps in the 50’s.

Friday looks to be in the low 60’s valley and 50’s mountains with plenty of sun. By Friday night showers roll in after midnight and continue really until Sunday night when it tapers off as it changes to, yes…snow again. I give up! Not widespread snow, just heavy wet flakes that really do nothing. Just reminds you it’s still spring and not summer. The obvious better chances are in the mountains at places like Montebello, Wintergreen, Afton Mountain, Love, Ennis. Though even the valley could see some snow as the system pulls out of here and some colder air filters in. Generally speaking next week after this mess is out of here we can expect milder temps in the 60’s for daytime highs and overnight lows in the 40’s.

The system this weekend has the potential to produce some pretty heavy rain. The folks at the weather service mention this Thurs night in their discussion:

Area quantitative precipitation forecast of 1 to 2 inches seems likely. Ptype is still uncertain
with some wet snow likely in higher terrain to northwest.

There is also more discussion about snow, though no real widespread concerns:

.

The one silver lining I do see, Saturday won’t be a complete washout everywhere. Though cool, the majority of the rain moves in later in the day and then stays around till late Sunday night.

Was talking to Dr. Jim Rice today in Nellysford, time to get the chompers cleaned again, and he mentioned that he was in Florida last week. Says he wishes he could bring the weather from there here….I agree, boy do I agree!

Just remember, we’re only days from really warm temps, cut off jeans, and the days of summer, but you sure couldn’t tell it right now!

Have a good Thurs evening and early Fri morning.

More later in the day Friday,
Tommy

Good morning,

Just a quick update for Tuesday morning weatherwise, I’ll have more detail later in the day.

Look for mostly sunny skies today and moderating temps. We’ll easily make it into the mid and upper 50’s today in the valley with slightly cooler temps above in the mountains. Wouldn’t be surprised if we hit 60 in some places. But for everyone it will feel much nicer since the sun will be out and the winds light around 5-8 MPH. Tonight, for the first time, we won’t be under a freeze warning. Overnight valley lows will be just above freezing in the 33-35 dgeree range valley and right around 32 on the mountains. Rain might slip in by daylight but look more likely later in the day Wed. If some of the initial light precip makes it in early a little frozen precip could be seen before changing to rain as the temps warm. It won’t be very warm Wed with highs around the upper 40’s to near 50 in the valley and not out of the 40’s mountains.

Speaking of no more freeze warnings, I saw Mr. Paul Saunders this morning on Channel 13 out of Lynchburg talking about the impact of freezing temps on the apple and peach crops. If anyone should know it’s him! He’s been doing that for decades. He said the real extent of the damage won’t be know for about two weeks. Let’s keep out fingers crossed! Paul is a great guy and a fine person!

Once this system moves out by late Thursday we have temps in the 60’s on Friday just before a more powerful system makes it’s way here by the weekend. Saturday looks to be the best day for perhaps some thunder. I am still pondering the chances for severe weather this weekend. A bit less likely than thinking yesterday but still not totally ruled out. Remember, long range forecasting is very unreliable, I don’t care what the experts tell you. Real accuracy goes way, way down after 12-24 hours out and a 7 day forecast, you might as well roll the dice. I expect lots of disagreement with this, but it’s true. The longer out you go in an extended forecast the more unreliable it becomes. General trends are possible, but accuracy it limited.

Oky enough on that for now, I’ll have an afternoon update with more.

Have a great Tuesday and enjoy the sun!
Tommy

Updated: Monday evening 10:18 PM EDT 4.9.2007

Have a good evening,
Tommy

Good morning!

Hope everyone had a nice Easter weekend. Though this was a cold one for sure! Temps over the weekend generally hovered in the 40’s with overnight lows dipping into the 20’s and even teens upon Devil’s Knob at our NCL-TWNF Weathernet Station. It’s still a cold 29 up there as I write this post around 9:15 AM.

Cold temps hang on for a few more days before we finally see moderating temps by week’s end. We’ll make it into the lower 50’s valley today and near 42 or so on the mountains. Tonight we again go in the deep freeze with upper 20’s in the valley to around 25 on the mountains. Cold yes, but it is moderating slightly as the artic air is slowly losing it’s grip here.

The real question mark in the forecast is around Tuesday night into Wednesday. Tuesday night a system approaches bringing moisture in. Temps will be right around the freezing mark in the valley overnight and at freezing on the mountains. This could allow for snow to develop in the overnight hours and early morning Wednesday before temps warm up enough to change over to just plain rain. Wintergreen, Montebello, Afton Mountain, etc at or near 2000 feet have better chances of seeing snow than the valley, but it’s not out of the question for all of us to once again see a smattering of snow. The NWS forecasters and the computer models they use to forecast are having a hard time determining what will happen over the next 48 hours. Rain looks likely, snow is still a question depending on the temps. I tend to think we will see some snow again, though nothing to write home over at this point.

By the end of the week we will start seeing temps in the lower 60’s and then upper 60’s by Sunday / Monday. Finally temps more in line with this time of year. There may even be a chance for thunderstorms (some severe) by next weekend. A little too early to tell just yet, but I do see some trends to support that.

I’ll have more on the snow this evening as I see how the system develops over the next 12 to 18 hours.

Have a great Monday and remember you can always find out the real LIVE weather copnditions at any of our NCL-Weathernet Stations by using the drop down menu in the upper left hand part of the page here at NelsonCountyLife.com Tell your friends!

Tommy

Good Saturday morning!

Well as we discussed last evening the snow fell overnight. We ended up with about an inch of snow here at the office in Greenfield.

Not overly surprised. The upper level low moved by last night and gave us anywhere from an inch of snow here in the valley to a little more at Wintergreen. I heard from Josh Palumbo at Wintergreen Nature Foundation this morning. He said they got about 2 inches of snow there. We know they got as low as 22 degrees up there last night, but we had a computer malfunction overnight there and don’t have the complete data set. NCL-TWNF
I’d say 22 is pretty close though. You can check out other state and area snowfall totals at this NWS site.

Here at NCL-Nelson County Life Magazine we bottomed out at 29 degrees. The freezing temps have everyone concerned right now. Yvette and I ate breakfast at the Rockfish Valley Community Center’s monthly pancake breakfast this morning and that was the topic of conversation. If you have never eaten there, you should! Great food! It’s always the first Saturday of the month. Stan Driver of Riverside Nursery at Spruce Creek said he’s got some vegitation that’s just started coming out and the tender portions could get bitten by the coming freeze tonight.

Bev and Keith, owners of Basic Necessities, (just back from New Orleans & heading out again Monday!) echoed the same. By the way, if you haven’t visited their blog from New Orleans you should. These guys are something else. In case you don’t know, both of them spend most of their time in New Orleans helping Katrina storm victims rebuild. They have rented a place down there and come back here briefly to regroup, then head back. You can see lots of their pictures and read about what they are doing here

Ray over at Delfosse Vineyard also said one of the plots there reached 26 degress the other night, and I am sure they’ll get pretty low tonight. Not a good scenario when you depend on them for the wine! But again this stuff can’t last for very long, we’re getting way late in the season and warm temps will return again soon. Just look at the flowers, they know!

Would like to give a shout out to Linda and Greg Heuer. They had some nice things to say about my forecast overnight:

1. Greg & Linda Heuer Says:

WOW! Local weather guys hits it right on the button! Looking out on the deck this morning at 5 AM, we see the one inch of snow (as predicted) on top of the table in a neat little donut. Nice work!
On April 7th, 2007 at 5:54 am e

Thanks guys for reading and the nice remarks! That’s why I am forecasting here now, we get much better results with the local data from the NCL Weathernet Stations. This is going to be fun and we appreciate all of the input from everyone!

Ok, on to tonight and the rest of the weekend forecast. Look for mostly sunny skies to work in as the afternoon wears on, but don’t look for much heat. It “ain’t” happening! We’ve already reached our highs for today in the lower 40’s. Temps in the valley will hover in the upper 30’s for the remainder of the day before bottoming out tonight around 20 degrees here in the valley with temps in the mid to upper teens on the mountains. It will be a breezy day today with winds hitting to near 30 on the mountains and near 20 MPH down below.

By Sunday we “start” to moderate a bit. Back around 50 with plenty of sun on Easter Sunday, around 40 mountains. Sunday night lows hit 20 mountains about 28 or so valley. On Monday we make the mid 50’s, same on Tuesday. By Tuesday night a chance of rain is back in the forecast. I don’t see any 60’s out there until late in the week next week. Moderating air looks to be on it’s way around that time. Beyond that I think we begin to warm up nicely.

Thanks again to everyone who’s been visiting out new site. Keep coming back and tell everyone you know about it!

Have a warm Saturday and wonderful Easter. More later in the weekend.
Tommy

Good Friday evening,

Snow is still in the forecast tonight for Central Virginia and the Wintergreen area. Again, this won’t be a big snowmaker, but I do think some areas will see a dusting to around an inch of snow. Today was cool, but not terribly cold. Though everything feels cold after the 80+ degrees earlier this week. Today at Nelson County Life Magazine here in Greenfield we had a high of 53 degrees just before 3Pm after an overnight low of right at freezing of 32 degrees around 3 AM Friday. Up on the mountain at our NCL-Wintergreen Nature Foundation weather station at Devil’s Knob they struggled today to reach a high of 43 degrees after an overnight low of 18 this morning. Brhhh. I ate lunch up there today at The Edge and it was a cold day with some wind. To the east at Delfosse Vineyard & Winery they had a high today of 51 with an overnight low of 31.

Overnight look for clouds to increase with showers developing. In the evening NWS forecast discussion mentions of snow are scattered throughout:

Thermal profiles appear favorable for snow…with rain possible at
onset across lower southern Maryland. Despite the cool temperatures
aloft…wont be surprised to see a few sleet reports at onset across
the region as melting may occur in the boundary layer…and
evaporational effects lead to refreezing. If this occurs…it should
be brief (left out of forecast as impact will be negligible)

The air is very very dry right now, so it may take some time before the actual rain / snow ever makes it to the ground. (It takes a while for the rain to invade a dry air mass before it can hit the ground) As of this post the humidity levels are running around 28% – a long way from 100%!

On Saturday clouds linger with scattered snow showeres in the AM – with sun returning by the afternoon. Tonight look for a low of about 30 dgerees but we’ll see some gusty winds from time to time up to 30 MPH especially after midnight when the snow has better chances of arriving. Saturday’s highs are in the low to mid 40’s – with Saturday night lows in the lows 20’s and Sunday highs around 53. We start a slow warmup on Monday as we head into a new week.

If any of you reading this get some neat snow pics, send them to us at: info@nelsoncountylife.com and we’ll put them up here.

And a final footnote. Some folks have mentioned noticing NCL-Wintergreen Winery / Beech Grove & NCL Mini-Tara Vineyard / Arrington have been on and offline over the past week. Yep, you are correct! The guys at those locations are dealing with dialup connections from their stations to report the data to Weather Underground internet and us. It’s being worked on and those connections should be more reliable in the coming days.

Everyone have a great Friday night and warm weekend! The Easter Bunny is going to be cold come Sunday morning!

Tommy