Here’s Paul Saunders at The Wintergreen Nature Foundation signing my copy of his new book, Heartbeats of Nelson.
Be sure and get your copy at the Nelson County Folk Life Festival at Pharsalia April 21 & 22. You can also attend the signing at The Nelson Center April 29.
The 600+ pages of this book are absolutely mesmerizing. IMHO, Heartbeats should be required reading for every Nelson County High School student. What do you say school board?
Just so you know that not everyone at 6222 Rockfish Valley Hwy is weather obsessed …
I was working on the next issue and had DIY on mute (and had Coldplay up on iTunes). On pops the KnittyCam.
Still a fervent believer that knitting is not a sport despite what my husband says, it seems like the folks at DIY take knitting quite seriously. I am willing to bet this guy knit this snazzy skull cap himelf!
And then, the kicker! They bring in this poor guy and make him model a teal boa!
See his Oh-my-gosh-I can’t-believe-I’m-doing-this grin? Reason #3471 television is scary and should be avoided.
Updated 4.15.07 12:38 PM EDT for flood watch expiration @ 4PM
Flood watch will remain in effect until 4PM EDT. Far southern counties may even hear a clap of thunder as a warm front is down there in the vicinity creating dynamics favorable for thundershowerrs and moderate to heavy rain. Generally speaking we have seen rainfall amounts of around 1/2 inch to an inch overnight.
The bigger story continues to be the high winds on the way. DC / Sterling office has not issued a high wind warning or advisory for here, however the Blacksburg office one county area over (Amherst) has. Their High Wind Warning begins at 6PM tonight through Tues AM. I think we will eventually see an advisory issued for our area as well. They are playing it safe right now, but as I have said before and in the April issue of NCL, the guys in Blacksburg NWS are far more on the ball. I trust their judgement far more. And I am seeing trends that support what they say. Even the DC forecasters are pondering this in their 4 AM discussion:
For Monday…two concerns: winds and upslope snow. A very tight surface
pressure gradient and strong low-level cyclonic flow around the low
over southern New York will dominate the weather. Strong and gusty
northwest winds accross the region will likely approach Wind
Advisory conditions but will not be strong enough to warrant any
type of high wind warch. The other concern will be the continuation
of accumulating snow in the far western zones in upslope portions.For Monday night…cold temperatures once again are forecast…with some spots
along and to the west of the Blue Ridge expected to drop to near
freezing. However…strong northwest cyclonic flow will still be with US
which wll help minimzie threat of widespread freezing conditions.
Look for the bulk of the rain before 3-4 pm today, after that mainly drizzle and light showers, and isolated heavy shower south.
Look out for those gusty winds as we head into tonight and Monday.
A more detailed update later today.
Stay dry!
Tommy
Previous post
Good Sunday morning.
What a lousy Saturday it was. No really heavy rain, but pretty much light to moderate rain all day. Here at NCL-Nelson County Life Magazine we picked up around a half inch of rain for Saturday. Up on the mountain at NCL-Wintergreen Nature Foundation they picked up just over a half an inch at .65″. The amount at the foot of the mountain at NCL-Wintergreen Winery was .55″ For whatever reason our NCL station over at Delfosse Winery is not online and has been was off the entire day Saturday. Not sure of the problem. But we’re looking into it.
A flood watch is in effect until Sunday afternoon as much heavier rains are expected to move in. Here’s the official text from NWS bulletin late Sat night:
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
944 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2007…FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON…
* INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING…WITH A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY NEAR
MIDDAY…BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM…WITH SCATTERED LOCATIONS
RECEIVING AS MUCH AS THREE INCHES. LOCATIONS ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOME OF THE
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS.* CREEKS AND STREAMS…AND LOW LYING URBAN AREAS MAY FLOOD DUE
TO HEAVY RAIN.
Look for rains to continue Sunday, heavy at times, and look for the winds to gradually increase throughout the afternoon. Gusts to 30 MPH will be common and even higher Sunday night after midnight. 40+ MPH a possibility.
Sunday will be a tad warmer than Saturday with temps in the mid 50’s valley and upper 40’s mountains. The big changes come Sunday night when colder air moves in and chances for some snow move into the area as this system exits NE. Chances for a light snow covering are obviously better at Wintergreen, Afton Mtn, and points along the Blue Ridge. In the valley we may see some snow Sun night, but nothing to get worked up over. Temps on the mountains Sun night upper 20’s – mid 30’s valley. Look for winds to steadly increase after midnight Sunday into Monday morning.
By Monday we begin to see some sun from time to time but the winds are going to be brutal. The average speeds Monday afternoon are from the NW around 30 MPH with gusts as high as 55 MPH. That’s here in the valley, on the mountains higher gusts are possible. Hold down your hat!
Things settle down by Tuesday with a slight chance of showers Thursday. By next weekend, finally, we may get near 70 degrees!
Let’s keep our fingers crossed!
More later today on the potential for flooding and the high winds on their way.
Have a great Sunday,
Tommy
Updated 4-14-07 1:31 EDT
This is why I always say don’t always listen to the National Weather Service in DC. They, many times, don’t know what’s happening on the ground here in Nelson so far down south.
NWS Forecast as of 1251 PM EDT Sat Apr 14 2007
Now
Expect occasional sprinkles through the early afternoon across northern and central Virginia and eastern West Virginia. Isolated locations may receive enough to barely wet the ground… otherwise the rainfall will not be enough to measure through 3pm.
Funny, our gauge here at the Nelson County LIfe Magazine office shows a fifth of an inch of rain since midnight. Certainly not a huge amount, but certainly enough to measure.
Other NCL weathernet sites such as NCL-Wintergreen Winery show .22″ of rain since midnight and on the mountain at NCL-Wintergreen Nature Foundation, they have had cold .22″ of rain up there as well. Enough to be measured don’t you think? Speaking of rainfall mesurements, here’s a neat link of just rain and flood guages at locations in other parts of the county. You can’t get temps there, but you can see rainfall amounts. Thanks to Henri Weems of Rodes Farm for telling us about this one. Very nice!
More updates later this evening, but right now we’re even seeing breaks in the clouds here at the office in Greenfield. Don’t be fooled, the real heavy rain is later tonight and tomorrow.
Have a great Saturday afternoon,
Tommy
Older post below:
Good Friday evening and Saturday morning to everyone.
What a beautiful Friday. Mostly sunny skies and temps in the 60’s made it feel pretty nice other than a nip in the occasional winds. Today was my first try at learning golf. More on that later in the weekend and next month’s issue, but what a perfect day to be out there learning. Sean Taylor, the golf director at Wintergreen is my instructor, man does he know his stuff!
Later Yvette and I went up the mountain to The Wintergreen Nature Foundation where Mr. Paul Saunders, author of Heartbeats of Nelson, had his first small book signing. What a wonderful piece of work. The book is excellent! We’ll have more on that later this weekend as well times for the next signing, which includes the folk fest at Pharsalia next weekend. You are going to want a copy of this book believe me, you’lll be very sorry if you don’t get one.
Weatherwise, look for more rain over the next 48 hours. Friday night clouds began streaming in and some light rain is possible Saturday morning, though the heavier rain comes Saturday night into Sunday. Lows Friday will be in the upper 30’s valley and mid 30’s mountains. If the clouds hold off for a bit temps could drop a degree or so colder, but not very likely as the clouds moving in will tend to hold the temps up.
On Saturday rain begins – again heavier later- with temps pretty much staying in the low 50’s for everyone, around 50 mountains. Sat night rain increases and becomes heavy as we head toward the morning hours Sun.
NWS mentions this in their Friday evening discussion:
Saturday night through Sunday morning…and this is when there is
the highest probability for heavy rainfall.
Lows Sat night low 40’s valley and mid 30’s mountain. Some snow / rain mix could occur there. Sun rain contiunues, heavy from time to time, with increasing northerly winds. Temps in the valley don’t make it much above the mid 50’s valley ( I think that is optimistic) and in the 40’s mountains.
By Sunday night, this is where it could get interesting in the mountains. Especially, if you are on the west side of the Blue Ridge, look for snow developing. Several inches not out of the question at the higher elevations.
NWS says it this way in their discussion:
Based off the weather/quantitative precipitation forecast grids from our gridded database…a
snow total of 4 to 8 inches is expected during that time frame. HPC
westward graphics support this thinking. A Winter Storm Watch may be
necessary in future shifts to address the heavy snow potential.
Another big change, high winds moving in Sun night into Monday. Gusts well above 30+ MPH are possible. Though by Monday we do get partly sunny skies, temps again in the mid 50’s valley.
The rest of the week looks quiet with temps finally hitting the lower 60’s for highs by week’s end.
I’ll be updating again Saturday by afternoon, as this system is being closely watched for changes. Also pics and more from other things happening as well.
Have a great weekend!
Tommy
Good Thurs evening and Friday morning to all,
What a beautiful day on Thursday. Yvette and I spent some time over at Oak Ridge looking over their new facilities. Heather showed us the new building, what a beautiful place. Check out the sky in this picture below. This is the old carriage house on the property.
Wish I had better news for everyone over the next 48 to 72 hours, but it doesn’t look like a very good weekend shaping up temp wise or sky wise. Overnight Thursday pretty boring – temps fall to the upper 30’s overnight generally speaking. Enjoy Friday, it’ll be the last really nice day until next week around Monday when we have partly sunny skies back and temps in the 50’s.
Friday looks to be in the low 60’s valley and 50’s mountains with plenty of sun. By Friday night showers roll in after midnight and continue really until Sunday night when it tapers off as it changes to, yes…snow again. I give up! Not widespread snow, just heavy wet flakes that really do nothing. Just reminds you it’s still spring and not summer. The obvious better chances are in the mountains at places like Montebello, Wintergreen, Afton Mountain, Love, Ennis. Though even the valley could see some snow as the system pulls out of here and some colder air filters in. Generally speaking next week after this mess is out of here we can expect milder temps in the 60’s for daytime highs and overnight lows in the 40’s.
The system this weekend has the potential to produce some pretty heavy rain. The folks at the weather service mention this Thurs night in their discussion:
Area quantitative precipitation forecast of 1 to 2 inches seems likely. Ptype is still uncertain
with some wet snow likely in higher terrain to northwest.
There is also more discussion about snow, though no real widespread concerns:
This system is unusually strong for middle April. Expect the main snow
threat to be confined to the Blue Ridge and west…and mainly
above 1500 feet. Further…any snow that does fall will have a very
hard time sticking to pavement. Bottom line…something to continue
to watch…but at this time think that if there is any snow it will
not cause much in the way of problems
.
The one silver lining I do see, Saturday won’t be a complete washout everywhere. Though cool, the majority of the rain moves in later in the day and then stays around till late Sunday night.
Was talking to Dr. Jim Rice today in Nellysford, time to get the chompers cleaned again, and he mentioned that he was in Florida last week. Says he wishes he could bring the weather from there here….I agree, boy do I agree!
Just remember, we’re only days from really warm temps, cut off jeans, and the days of summer, but you sure couldn’t tell it right now!
Have a good Thurs evening and early Fri morning.
More later in the day Friday,
Tommy
Story & Photos by:
Tommy Stafford, Nelson County Life Magazine
Long before we all head out to the Rockfish Ruritan Park next month to buy our plants at the annual sale, members of the Master Gardeners are busy getting plants ready.
Above Nancy Longton and Ruth Powell of Nelson Master Gardeners dig up and separate plants that will sell at next month’s Pre-Mother’s Day Plant Sale on May 6th.
On Wednesday several members met at fellow gardener’s home of Milly Colella in the Rockfish Airpark to dig up several varities of plants that will be on sale next month. Milly’s yard was one of several the gardeners have been working in over the past week or so.
Here Nelson Master Gardener, Ruth Hartzell, coordinator for the dig, and Milly Colella work on separating larger plants to pot for the sale.
For contact info and more information about the Nelson Master Gardeners, you can visit their website by clicking here.
Story and photos by, Tommy Stafford, Nelson County Life Magazine
Tuesday I spent much of the afternoon out at Delfosse Vineyard and Winery relocating the NCL-Delfosse Winery Weathernet station. It was too near the actual vineyard so we wanted to get it out of the way before the spraying season begins. Was a near perfect afternoon to make the move. Mike Patterson helped me get everything moved and relocated.
While I was out there I began talking to Grayson, the vineyard and farm manager. He was meeting with a vineyard consultant. Back in Tennessee this was equal to our version of a cotton scout. The guys who would look over your specific crop and assess the damage either from weather or insects. He’d then make suggestions on things you could do to minimize their effects.
In this case the past week or so of freezing temperatures have been terrible for vineyards around the area. And we’re not talking about a night or two, but five straight nights of really cold temperatures.
In the photo above, Chris Hill, vineyard consultant from Covesville, and Delfosse vineyard and farm manager, Grayson Poats, look over recent damage to some of the vines.
“Certain varities are hit very hard, and some aren’t hit so hard. Chardonnay is hit very hard,” says Hill. He says it is the first variety that comes out and anything that was already out got hit pretty hard. “Essentially the vine gets to take the year off,” continues Hill. Though the vines continue to produce vegitation, the damaged shoots will not produce fruit. In this case grapes.
This photo shows a vine shoot totally destroyed by the freezing temperatures. When touched they simply crumble into dust.
This is an example of a vine shoot that has not been damaged. Hardly any of the “bud” was exposed so it will mature properly if no other freezing temperatures come later.
“I don’t think anything escaped entirely. We’ll just have to wait and see how severe it is. But it’s pretty bad. We’ll have fruit in the vineyard, we just won’t have as much as we wanted,” says Poats.
The good news, it won’t affect anything you’ll buy this year in the wineries. That crop is alreay made from previous years. It will be 2008 when winemakers across the state will be faced with possibly either buying grapes elsewhere or limiting production.
The full extent of the damage won’t be know for several more days or perhaps a couple of weeks.
Updated: 4-11-07 10:32 EDT – Wintergreen Snow
Ok as mother nature can do, she has this time, thrown me a curve. When it happens I admit it. I missed the chance that mountain temps wouldn’t warm enough to avoid snow up there. Sure enough our photographer and Wintergreen mountain resident, Paul Purpura just sent these to us. Snow! When will spring ever make her mind up…ok, it could be a man too! As of this post our NCL-TWNF Weathernet station shows a temp of 29 degrees.
Here’s three of Paul’s photo’s shot just a few ago:
These are shot at Three Ridges Condos just above the mountain inn.
So as you can see, spring can be a fussy time of year. Yvette says it can’t make up it’s mind. Yea! It’s spring.
I will have much more posted later today including some things to get you in the mood for warmer weather!
Thanks Paul for a quick turnaround on the winter pics from the mountain!
Tommy
Good morning everyone,
Quick update this morning before I head out the door to take some pics at the Rockfish Airpark.
Today will be cloudy witrh rain showers developing throughout the day. Rain becomes more widespread this afternoon and tonight. We may even heard a clap of thunder from time to time, though I think most of the thundershowers will be confined to points SW of Nelson. The dynamics are not in place here for much thunder. Highs today aren’t going anywhere much, around the upper 40’s. Without any sunshine we just don’t get any heating to speak of. Tonight rain continues with overnight lows not moving much from daytime highs, around 42 in the valley and about the same on the mountains this time around. Thunder is again a possibility tonight, but not widespread.
Thursday we are left with lingering morning showers giving way to sunshine in the afternoon with temps warming a bit to the mid 60’s with increasing westerly winds in the afternoon. Thurs night we’ll see some clouds passing by with lows falling to the upper 30’s valley and about 30 on the mountains. Friday we still enjoy fair weather and lots of sun and temps in the lower 60’s.
The weekend promises another round of rain, more on this in the afternoon update. We’ll be posting much more stuff later today.
Have a great Wednesday!
Tommy
Good morning,
Just a quick update for Tuesday morning weatherwise, I’ll have more detail later in the day.
Look for mostly sunny skies today and moderating temps. We’ll easily make it into the mid and upper 50’s today in the valley with slightly cooler temps above in the mountains. Wouldn’t be surprised if we hit 60 in some places. But for everyone it will feel much nicer since the sun will be out and the winds light around 5-8 MPH. Tonight, for the first time, we won’t be under a freeze warning. Overnight valley lows will be just above freezing in the 33-35 dgeree range valley and right around 32 on the mountains. Rain might slip in by daylight but look more likely later in the day Wed. If some of the initial light precip makes it in early a little frozen precip could be seen before changing to rain as the temps warm. It won’t be very warm Wed with highs around the upper 40’s to near 50 in the valley and not out of the 40’s mountains.
Speaking of no more freeze warnings, I saw Mr. Paul Saunders this morning on Channel 13 out of Lynchburg talking about the impact of freezing temps on the apple and peach crops. If anyone should know it’s him! He’s been doing that for decades. He said the real extent of the damage won’t be know for about two weeks. Let’s keep out fingers crossed! Paul is a great guy and a fine person!
Once this system moves out by late Thursday we have temps in the 60’s on Friday just before a more powerful system makes it’s way here by the weekend. Saturday looks to be the best day for perhaps some thunder. I am still pondering the chances for severe weather this weekend. A bit less likely than thinking yesterday but still not totally ruled out. Remember, long range forecasting is very unreliable, I don’t care what the experts tell you. Real accuracy goes way, way down after 12-24 hours out and a 7 day forecast, you might as well roll the dice. I expect lots of disagreement with this, but it’s true. The longer out you go in an extended forecast the more unreliable it becomes. General trends are possible, but accuracy it limited.
Oky enough on that for now, I’ll have an afternoon update with more.
Have a great Tuesday and enjoy the sun!
Tommy
Updated: Monday evening 10:18 PM EDT 4.9.2007
Looks like precip may stay away long enough Tuesday night to avoid the snow mentioned earlier today. Right now the temps Tues night look to bottom out around 31 or 32 degrees and the rain looks to hold off until roughly 9ish or so Wed morning. By then temps willl be at a minimum in the mid 30’s. If that’s the case we will miss the opportunity for any frozen precip, at least in the valley. Still a slight chance in the mountains.
Still see trends to possibility for severe weather this coming weekend. More more to digest between now and then, but will blog more on this as the week progresses.
More updates Tuesday.
Have a good evening,
Tommy
Good morning!
Hope everyone had a nice Easter weekend. Though this was a cold one for sure! Temps over the weekend generally hovered in the 40’s with overnight lows dipping into the 20’s and even teens upon Devil’s Knob at our NCL-TWNF Weathernet Station. It’s still a cold 29 up there as I write this post around 9:15 AM.
Cold temps hang on for a few more days before we finally see moderating temps by week’s end. We’ll make it into the lower 50’s valley today and near 42 or so on the mountains. Tonight we again go in the deep freeze with upper 20’s in the valley to around 25 on the mountains. Cold yes, but it is moderating slightly as the artic air is slowly losing it’s grip here.
The real question mark in the forecast is around Tuesday night into Wednesday. Tuesday night a system approaches bringing moisture in. Temps will be right around the freezing mark in the valley overnight and at freezing on the mountains. This could allow for snow to develop in the overnight hours and early morning Wednesday before temps warm up enough to change over to just plain rain. Wintergreen, Montebello, Afton Mountain, etc at or near 2000 feet have better chances of seeing snow than the valley, but it’s not out of the question for all of us to once again see a smattering of snow. The NWS forecasters and the computer models they use to forecast are having a hard time determining what will happen over the next 48 hours. Rain looks likely, snow is still a question depending on the temps. I tend to think we will see some snow again, though nothing to write home over at this point.
By the end of the week we will start seeing temps in the lower 60’s and then upper 60’s by Sunday / Monday. Finally temps more in line with this time of year. There may even be a chance for thunderstorms (some severe) by next weekend. A little too early to tell just yet, but I do see some trends to support that.
I’ll have more on the snow this evening as I see how the system develops over the next 12 to 18 hours.
Have a great Monday and remember you can always find out the real LIVE weather copnditions at any of our NCL-Weathernet Stations by using the drop down menu in the upper left hand part of the page here at NelsonCountyLife.com Tell your friends!
Tommy
