Join the Guerilla Yoga Project for an All-Levels Yoga class on Wednesdays from 6:15-7:15 pm at the Rockfish Valley Community Center. For more information and the full schedule of classes, visit www.gypcville.com. By donation. All are welcome!
Via NWS : Virtually all of Central Virginia including Nelson & Wintergreen is under a Winter Storm Watch or Warning that takes effect on Wednesday. Click image for absolute latest updates between our updates here.
Original post from 1.25.11 @ 7:17PM EST
A wide variety of winter weather bulletins have been posted across Central Virginia for impending snowy conditions by Wednesday afternoon. Here in Nelson a Winter Storm Watch takes effect Wednesday afternoon. Right now amounts between 4 to 6″ are forecast for the valley portions of Nelson with higher amounts possible in the mountains by Wednesday night.
Precipitation will begin as rain late this evening and may mix with snow or sleet as we approach Wednesday morning. Then the mixed precipitation should change to all snow late in the day Wednesday into the nighttime hours ending by the predawn hours Thursday.
We will be continually updating our website over the next 24 to 36 hours as this winter event unfolds. Be sure to refresh your browser often and also follow us on our Facebook page here for up to the minute updates, or over on Twitter here.
Via NWS : The latest snowfall prediction map from NWS as of 4AM Wed morning. Click on image for latest.
Nelson County, Virginia
Above is the latest total storm snowfall prediction map from the NWS. Nelson in the general 4-6″ (bordering 4-8″) category by the time all of the snow has ended sometime Wednesday night. Wintry precipitation is expected to move into the area during Wednesday afternoon. Wednesday morning. It may start as a rain / snow mix then change over to all snow Wednesday afternoon.
Nelson County, Virginia
Events are still on track for Nelson and much of Central Virginia to receive a wintry mix of weather starting late Tuesday night. There will be varying degrees of precipitation since temps will quickly rose into the 50’s during the daylight hours Tuesday, before dropping back to near freezing as colder air is drawn back into the area by Wednesday. David Tolleris over at Wxrisk.com in Richmond, has put out what’s referred to as his Last Call Map showing predicted amounts for the area. We find David’s data and predictions to be far superior to any other, including media, the NWS, etc. There’s no question the most likely areas to see significant accumulating snow are along and west of the BRP. But those of us butting right up to the mountains here in Nelson could see significant accumulation before the storm ends Wednesday night.
“.HEAVY SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT…
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WEDNESDAY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.”
It’s a sure bet a similar watch will be issued for Nelson in the coming hours. We have found that the Blacksburg NWS is far more accurate and better at predictions and preparation than the Sterling NWS that is the actual office for Nelson. Much of that is simply geography since Nelson is the last county south in the forecast area.
THe Hydro Prediction Center arm of the NWS generally concurs that Nelson and the area will see some snowfall during the day and evening Wednesday.
Roseland
Nelson County, Virginia
It’s been very cold, but that doesn’t matter if you’re a Canadian Goose! Thanks to Heidi Crandall of Roseland for sending us this beautiful shot of the geese on the water in Roseland, Virginia.
Photo via Nelson ES - This house fire at 104 Simpson Lane in Faber, VA kept firefighters busy this past Sunday - January 23, 2011
Faber
Nelson County, Virginia
Crews from Faber FD, Lovingston FD, Rockfish FD, Wintergreen FD, Nelson Rescue , and the Nelson County Sheriff’s Department responded to a house fire this past Sunday morning in Faber. “Mr. Dennis Atkins was driving on rt 29 N, when he noticed smoke coming from the house. He stopped, backed up, and could tell it was a fire. He then went to the house and started pounding on the door to alert the home owner,” says Nelson Emergency Services coordinator, Ray Uttaro. He went on to say they tried to use a fire extinguisher but couldn’t get the fire out.
According to Uttaro, no one was injured and the owner had insurance,
Nelson County, Virginia Updated 1.24.11 @1:40PM for AccuWx Map below
As we talked about Sunday, Nelson and much of Central Virginia is poised for a hit by some possible winter weather mid-week. David Tolleris, over at Wxrisk.com in Richmond just released his 1st call map shown above. It still shows the dividing line of rain vs wintry precip very, very close for Nelson. In general to the west of the BRP sees the absolute best chance of accumulating snow. To the east here in Nelson, good chances at Wintergreen, (higher elevations obviously) fair chances just to the east side of the BRP in places like Nellysford, Roseland, Afton, etc.
This is all about temps this time folks, we won’t know for sure, as in most cases, until we get almost up on the event itself. But we’ll start getting much better clues by tonight into tomorrow morning. But I might add, David Tolleris gets it right when others don’t. Simply because he isn’t sawed by flawed computer models or peer pressure.
There’s a growing consensus that a significant winter storm will be affecting the Central Virgina & Appalachian regions of the US by mid week. Unlike previous storms this winter, this one will be tracking more inland vs off of the east coast then on up into New England. Though New England will see affects of this too. The one big question that remains, if of course, the exact track and how much cold air will be in place once all of the elements come together. The map above is from meteorologist Henry Margusity at accuweather.com
One of the elements that could destroy the prospects of heavy snowfall is much warmer air that moves in here on Tuesday. Afternoon temps will rise to the upper 40’s during the day before falling back into the low 30’s overnight. Where that line of warmer air sets up determines who sees the snow, the ice and the rain. We don’t know that yet and can’t say with any accuracy this far out.
One of our favorite sources is without question, David Tolleris, over at Wxrisk.com in Richmond. David is in the business of long range predictions for agricultural and energy interests. As you can see from his map above Nelson is near the areas where we could go either snow or a mix. But DT’s discussions do lean toward folks along and near I-81 seeing a significant winter event.
It MUST be stressed this is all for discussion purposes at this point, as a deviation on the track of the storm can mean significant changes. But there is greater likelihood of seeing something this time around vs the last several storms. There is also another storm in the chute around the first few days of February. We’ll talk more on that one late this week.