Nelson County, Virginia
With dewpoints already in the lower 70’s Thursday morning, and temperatures expected to be near 90° in the afternoon, the potential for severe weather is developing across Virginia and the Mid-Atlantic. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the area in the slight risk category for severe storms. Their morning discussion included the following for this area:
…MID ATLANTIC REGION…
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH ROTATING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION TODAY AND HELP TO INITIATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NYC SOUTHWARD INTO VA/NC. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 70S ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF VA/NC WHERE STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THIS AREA. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS OVER THIS AREA CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS…HAIL…AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
Additionally the local weather service office in Sterling mentions the possibility of strong to severe storms both Thursday and Friday in their Hazardous Weather Outlook:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. ONE OR TWO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL…DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
We’ll continue watching developments here and update if severe weather starts breaking out.
NCL
