By Tommy Stafford
The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of the state of Virginia in the slight risk area for severe weather on Sunday. The most likely threat would be from damaging straight line winds. There’s a slight risk, low, for hail and an isolated tornado.
Often times I am asked what the sight risk vs high risk areas mean. As my weather bud Chief Meteorologist Travis Koshko over at CBS19 mentions below, it’s mainly used for meteorologists. It’s sort of an advanced forecast for where severe storms may break out. Just because it says slight risk doesn’t mean it can’t escalate into something serious. But it also means the potential isn’t as great as an area marked high risk or even enhanced risk.
SPC outlooks ("slight risk")= mainly for meteorologists.
Watches & warnings = for public (which were issued).But it's nice to see a national outlet praise the lead-time for warnings rather than inaccurately saying, "these storms came without warning".
So there's that. https://t.co/ts0FeuWvUG
— Travis Koshko (@TravisKoshko) March 26, 2021
In the scenario unfolding for Sunday, the threat for damaging thunderstorm winds is higher than hail or tornados. Though that threat isn’t at zero. And as of Saturday morning, better chances for storms are to our east on Sunday, but that’s more than 24 hours out from when I’m posting this, so it could change.
Severe potential is still there (heavy rain, hail, damaging winds, isolated tornadoes).
1) The more sunshine we see, the better the chances for severe weather.
2) The greatest threat appears to be east of Charlottesville / US-29… for now. #cvillewx #vawx https://t.co/pgPLaAa59p pic.twitter.com/uWRiT2aRWl
— Travis Koshko (@TravisKoshko) March 27, 2021
Mainly just keep an eye out on Sunday. If watches or warnings are issued, that’s what to really look for.
Severe weather season is just getting started here in Virginia, so there will be many weeks ahead of outlooks like these as we get into warmer weather.
T
