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Updated : 1:30 PM EDT : A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has now been issued until 9PM EDT tonight.
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The atmosphere over Virginia is becoming increasingly unstable as the afternoon wears on. In the discussion below (a precursor to many watches) the Storm Prediction Center is hinting at a watch forthcoming later today.
Check back here often for updates.
NCL
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1418
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008AREAS AFFECTED…ERN WV…NRN VA…MD…DE…SRN PA…NJ…NYC AREA
CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY
VALID 161654Z – 161900Z
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY MID AFTERNOON. A WATCH IS
LIKELY BY 18Z.WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
OH/WV. THIS FEATURE HAS AIDED A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING
INTO WESTERN WV. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURE WILL
CROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO PARTS OF MD/VA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. MEANWHILE…POCKETS OF STRONG HEATING HAVE OCCURRED IN MOST
AREAS FROM THE NYC AREA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN VA. NO CAP
REMAINS AND PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP IN THIS AREA SOON. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF HAIL AND
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.
