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Latest Regional Radar Loop
Latest Day 1 Outlook From The Storm Prediction Center
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The likelihood of widespread severe weather near Nelson is unlikely, but does exist. We’ll keep a watch.
NCL
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2008
VALID 191630Z – 201200Z
…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN TN VALLEY AND SERN
STATES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES…
…EASTERN U.S…
STRONG UPPER LOW CROSSING TX OVERNIGHT CONTINUING TO ACCELERATE AND
OPEN INTO A TROUGH AS IT REACHES APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT.
IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS HAVE ROTATED AROUND
UPPER SYSTEM AND WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CONCERN TODAY.
THE SURFACE LOW CENTER IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MID TN VALLEY WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWD THRU MS INTO GULF. LOW WILL DEEPEN STEADILY
AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY NEWD TO SRN PA BY THIS EVENING AND TO NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z THU.
THE COMBINATION OF POOR LAPSE RATES AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL
TEMPER WHAT OTHERWISE WOULD BE A POTENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. WITH 100 PLUS KT 500MB WIND MAX COUPLED
WITH AT LEAST 60KT LOW LEVEL JET TRANSLATING FROM TN VALLEY TO MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING…POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL
EXIST WITH EXPECTED STRONGLY FORCED PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE.
LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NERN AL TO WRN FL
PANHANDLE AND WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEWD THRU MID ATLANTIC STATES
BY THIS EVENING. WITH THE VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE
AVAILABLE THIS AREA…PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE AS
LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO TRANSFER STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO SURFACE. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
TO SPIN UPS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE…AS CONDITIONS UNFAVORABLE FOR
SUSTAINED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
ADDITIONAL WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
UPPER TROUGH IN THE DRY SLOT THAT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS ERN
KY/TN TO SRN PA/WV THIS EVENING. AGAIN THE POOR LAPSE RATES WILL
LIMIT SEVERE IN AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PATTERN.
